People across Africa are demanding better governance and are increasingly willing to take to the streets to get it, writes Abubakar Usman.

Scenes of people marching through the streets of sub-Saharan Africa, passionately demanding change or jubilantly celebrating the overthrow of unpopular regimes, have become a common feature of the region’s evolving political landscape. From Conakry to Bamako, Ouagadougou to Khartoum, Niamey to Libreville, and most recently in Dakar and Nairobi, these powerful images of public mobilisation and protest illustrate a new era of political activism and transformation across the continent.

These dramatic displays of public dissent reflect a broader trend of gradual political change reshaping many countries across Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2020 and 2023, there have been 14 military coup attempts, with 9 resulting in military takeovers in countries such as Mali, Guinea, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon. As the decade progresses, the likelihood of more military coups remains high.

Simultaneously, another significant but less highlighted form of political change is the wave of mass protests driven by public dissatisfaction with governance and political elites.

In 2021, Chadians protested the appointment of Idris Deby’s son as President and leader of the transition. Similarly, students in the Democratic Republic of Congo engaged in mass protests due to the government’s indifference towards striking teachers. Protests also erupted in Cameroon, particularly in the Anglophone region, as well as in Sudan and Ethiopia. According to data from Maplecroft, 36 countries experienced protests, demonstrations, and riots in 2023, a six-year high.

Kenya and Nigeria

The latest protest to capture the attention of external observers is happening in Kenya and is rapidly becoming known as “The Generation-Z Protest.” This name reflects the demographic characteristics of the protesters, who are young people leveraging social media platforms to mobilise and coordinate their efforts. The primary reasons cited for these protests include the finance bill passed by the government in 2024, the high cost of living, governance issues, and corruption.

This Kenyan protest is crucial to understanding the increasing wave of political change sweeping across sub-Saharan Africa. The younger generation is increasingly dissatisfied and agitated with the ruling elites in their respective countries. This discontent has partly enabled military elites in countries experiencing recent coups to exploit the dissatisfaction of the youth and seize power, knowing that the masses are likely to be at least indifferent to their takeover, if not openly supportive. The reactions of young people in Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Gabon after their coups were largely in favour of change.

In Nigeria, the climate is similarly tense, with protests growing louder since President Bola Ahmad Tinubu assumed power. Once again, young people are at the forefront of these protests, which share common themes with those in Kenya, including the rising cost of living, governance issues, and corruption amid widespread poverty affecting most of the population.

With Kenya and Nigeria, two regional leaders in East and West Africa, experiencing significant political change, it is likely that more countries across the continent will follow their lead.

Several factors are driving these political shifts. Although Africa was not as severely affected by Covid-19 in terms of infections and casualties compared to other parts of the world, the continent has been profoundly impacted by the pandemic’s repercussions. According to ReliefWeb, the pandemic led to job losses, reduced income, and fewer casual labour opportunities, which have eroded people’s ability to purchase staple food stuffs. Violent conflicts, corruption, and low public and private investment in agriculture also contribute to food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa.

Sub-Saharan African countries dominate the lowest rankings in terms of food security since the pandemic ended. According to The Economist’s Global Food Security Index, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region in the world that failed to perform above the global average in food security.

Another significant reason for the political changes sweeping across Sub-Saharan Africa is the skyrocketing cost of living, largely driven by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. This conflict, combined with the pandemic, has exacerbated food insecurity and caused energy prices to rise due to sanctions on Russian exports and Ukraine’s reduced capacity to produce grain. According to the UN, many sub-Saharan African countries heavily rely on imported wheat from Russia and Ukraine, with 15 countries importing over 50 per cent and six of them importing over 70 per cent of their wheat from these two nations.

With the rising cost of living, food insecurity, and various security challenges, the masses in many of these countries appear unwilling to tolerate further hardships.

It is evident that the current wave of political change sweeping through Sub-Saharan Africa is moving in two opposing directions. In countries where military elites are deeply entrenched in the political system, this has led to either increased power consolidation or violent conflict, as seen in Chad and Sudan, or military coups, as in Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, and Niger. However, the unfolding situation in Kenya and the recent elections in Senegal suggest that this political change can also lead to more positive outcomes, such as democratic consolidation, improved governance, and better democratic dividends.

In countries like Nigeria, which are on the brink of widespread protests, the ruling elites must carefully choose the direction they want this wave of change to move toward. If handled well, the situation could result in strengthened democracy and elevated governance. By Abubakar Usman, LSE