Unleashing tens of billions of investment across Africa, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are buying critical minerals and political influence The strategy of the oil-fired Gulf States in Africa appears to be modelled on a foreign policy dictum coined by Ghana's founding President, Kwame Nkrumah: 'We face neither east nor west – we face forwards.' Like Nkrumah, the Gulf monarchs alternate between cutting deals in Washington and Beijing and Moscow. Unlike him, they have trillions of dollars in sovereign wealth funds and face no immediate threats of coups d'état.
Last year in Johannesburg, the Sunni monarchies of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were inducted into the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) grouping at its summit. Along with their regional rival, the Shiite theocracy in Iran, the new BRICS members mean the grouping now produces almost half global oil output.
But Saudi Arabia and the UAE have their sights set on a post-oil future. Just 16.8% of the UAE's gross domestic product came from oil and gas in 2019, down from over 40% in 1980. That's a strategy that African oil producers want to replicate.
The UAE's and Saudi Arabia's investment firepower and post-oil planning has won them multiple business suitors on African projects from Europe and North America. Over the past decade, the UAE has invested over US$60 billion in Africa, compared with Saudi Arabia's more than $25bn in the same period.
Both countries are upping their African targets. The UAE's state-owned Masdar, specialising in renewable energy, says it will invest at least $10bn in green energy projects in Africa by 2030. And at its Africa summit in November Saudi Arabia, pledged to invest another $25bn on the continent over the next seven years.
That explains why the Gulf's ambassadors are widely welcomed in Africa – just when the United States, Europe and China have sharply cut back investments and other financial commitments in Africa. Washington officials encourage, even facilitate, the Gulf States' investments in critical minerals in Africa as a way to balance China's dominance in the sector.
Dualstrategy Among the world's top hydrocarbon producers and presiding over trillions of dollars of investment funding, Saudi Arabia and UAE alternate between today's world of fossil-fuel dependent economies and tomorrow's renewables. As they launch their own transitions, they have a stake in both.
On the public stage they endorse sharp cuts in carbon emissions; privately, they fend off, like US officials, any serious efforts to cut the $7 trillion a year (according to IMF estimates) subsidies on fossil fuels. Such posturing is greatly appreciated by African oil producers, irritated by Western blocks on hydrocarbon investments.
The UAE's chairing of the UN COP28 climate summit in November saw that strategy in action. The conference resembled less a policy meeting to slow climate change than a glorified trade fair bringing together energy companies, from the west and Asia, to negotiate deals. It was globalisation 2.0, run by the middle powers.
The Gulf States are not quite a concert of powers. Personal interests of the ruling monarchs and ideology, to a lesser extent, divide them. Differences between the UAE's Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahayan (MBZ) and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman (MBS) have sharpened in recent years. MBZ has led the charge into Africa but Saudi Arabia's MBS is charting his own course.
The two rulers did not share the same hostility towards the Muslim Brothers (MB) and other Islamist movements. MBZ and MBS supported General Abdel Fattah el Sisiin Egypt and funded his coup against President Mohamed Morsi(a Muslim Brother) in 2013. MBZ viscerally opposes the MB in all its manifestations whereas MBS takes a more pragmatic line.
Elsewhere, MBZ endorsed local strongmen against Islamists and Doha-supported politicians and insurgents. In Libya, UAE endorsed General Khalifa Haftar against a 'national unity' government backed by Qatar and Turkey.
Like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the UAE kept lines open to President Omer Ahmed Hassan el Beshir in Sudan, who headed the MB-affiliated National Congress Party.
Having dealt with El Beshir's military officers when Sudan sent mercenaries to fight in Yemen against the Iranian-backed Houthis, MBZ eventually endorsed General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo Hemeti, Commander of the Rapid Support Forces, in Sudan's civil war (AC Vol 64 No 23, Darfuris face a global dereliction of duty). This has earned the UAE international opprobrium for arming the brutal RSF, as documented in successive UN and independent human rights reports.
In Somalia, the UAE endorsed and funded local administrations that opposed the Islamists and those allied with Doha, such as President Mohammed Abdullah Mohammed 'Farmajo'. The UAE has tried to help Puntland, Somaliland, and Jubaland because they were reluctant to follow Mogadishu, Turkey, and Doha internationally.
MBS and his administration take a more nuanced approach that may owe something to Saudi Arabia's role in the Muslim world as guardian of the holy sites of Mecca and Medina.
Saudi officials see deterrence against Iran was seen as an existential imperative but show more pragmatism towards managing the crises triggered by Islamists in the greater region. Through its charities and heavily-funded and networked intelligence systems, Riyadh reckons it can effectively track and neutralise Islamist activists in the region.
Seeing a vacuum left by the West and China, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have started to accord Africa far more attention, in diplomatic and commercial terms. They are racing each other to win new contracts in mining, public works, and logistics.
Privatesectorrules When the private sector is mentioned in the Gulf states, one should look at how the rulers understand their country's interests and also acknowledge that big business in the Gulf states is rooted in the ruling families. No state decision can be made without considering how it will affect the situation of specific firms connected with the ruling elite.
A good example is how 51% of the Zambian Mopani copper mine was sold last year to International Resources Holding (IRH). A UAE company, IRH came late in the biddingwith no specific background on mining against two other companies, one Chinese and the other South African, that are well-known in the sector.
IRH is part of International Holding Company, the $240bn business empire of Tahnoon bin Zayed al Nahayan, son of the founder of UAE, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al Nahayan. Sheikh Tahnoon, who serves as the UAE's national security advisor, also chairs the Royal Group,an Abu Dhabi investment company with links to Primera Group, a gold-exporting company in Congo-Kinshasa (AC Vol 64 No 13, Tshisekedi gives away gold rights to UAE). The Mompani and Primera invetsments are typical of the way that Sheikh Tahnoon acts as the bridge between the state and private companies that deal with strategic issues for the UAE.
Another strategically and commercially successful operation is Dubai Ports (DP) World, which was established in 1999 and has established ports in Angola, Djibouti, Egypt, Morocco, Mozambique, Senegal, and Somalia. Mohamed bin Rashid al Maktoum is its main shareholder, besides his position as vice-president, prime minister and defence minister of the UAE.
This overlap broadens negotiations across commercial and state sectors. In Zambia, IRH's negotiations went from copper mining to investments in agriculture, tourism, and energy. That may also have happened in Tanzania, where DP World bought two-thirds of the management of Dar es Salaam port over the 30 years for $230m in July 2023. Dar es Salaam is a crucial transhipment point for copper from Zimbabwe and Zambia.
With the Tanzania deal, DP World has a presence on the Indian Ocean coast and the Red Sea up to Egypt (an agreement with Sudan was signed but not yet enforced due to the war).
Compared with Saudi Arabia, the UAE has a greater understanding of policy and tactics and is making itself indispensable to some of Africa's weaker regimes. Such a transactional approach to policy can entangle the UAE in arenas from which it can't escape.
In Libya, the UAE backed Haftar but he failed to takeTripoli despite bombarding the city for weeks. Still a UAE client, Haftar had to come to terms, behind the scenes, with Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dubaiba's government in Tripoli (AC Vol 63 No 16, Dubaiba woos UAE and Haftar with about-turn on oil).
In Ethiopia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, having won a pyrrhic victory against the Tigray region, is increasingly in thrall to the UAE for cash and diplomatic heft as his government faces growing threats in the Amhara and Oromo regions (AC Vol 65 No 1, Reality catches up with gambler Abiy).
In Somalia, the UAE struggled to interpret the intricacies of clan politics and has been backing several ineffectual operators. UAE firms do better when they focus on a limited commercial agenda, even though they benefit from state support.
Today, the UAE is the fourth biggest investor in Africa – after China, the European Union and the US. For the last two years it has invested more than China in Africa.
Yet there are plenty of warnings and questions about a wave of Gulf States funding washing across Africa.
Africans, if not their governments, have learned hard lessons about the need for more transparency in contracting and implementing agreements.
Other new commercial entrants to Africa have not provided the hoped-for contrast with western or colonial-era companies. For example, China's commercial operations have often undermined Africa's workforce and damaged its environment. They have also generated debts that have become problematic for some states.
Modern Gulf companies have little experience in Africa. Local counterparts are asking whether they would bring in their own staff and equipment or subcontract to other firms that may disrespect commitments as a means to boost short-term profits.
Some companies question the ability of Gulf companies to act quickly on the ground. Saudi Arabia's state apparatus is a Kafkaesque bureaucracy that MBS still needs to reform. Despite its technocratic rhetoric, the UAE often subcontracts to companies when it needs greater expertise.
The sheer volume of investment that the Gulf States are bringing to Africa can change financial dynamics across the continent. Much less clear is whether it will be used to generate sustainable growth and make the countries' economic structures more productive. Source: Africa Confidential
Ann Keter speaks five foreign languages, including Japanese, Chinese, Italian, Spanish, and French in addition to Swahili and English.[Kipsang Joseph, Standard][
As the sun peeks out from behind the clouds, painting the Equator area in Mogotio, Baringo County with a golden hue, Ann Keter diligently tends to her collection of woodcarvings within the cosy confines of her curio shop.
The walls are adorned with a stunning array of sculptures depicting the vibrant wildlife and cultural heritage of the people around, each piece telling a story of its own.
Ann Keter at her Curio shop at Equator area in Mogotio, Baringo county on April 4, 2024.[Kipsang Joseph, Standard]
"Welcome to Mogotio Equator Point," Ann greets us warmly, her hands cradling a well-carved elephant.
Beside her shop stands a brightly painted monument marking the Equator line, the main attraction in this area. Visitors from far and wide flock here to take photos and witness the fascinating phenomena that occur at this unique geographical location.
Ann's expertise was captured in a viral video while explaining the natural phenomenon along the Equator to a Chinese tourist. She said she didn’t even notice she was trending.
"A few days ago in the evening hours, my colleagues here had gone home because of the rains, and I was also about to close. A man came here with a tourist from China, and they wanted me to guide them through the Equator and explain to them, so I did it, and they left after spending a few minutes here," she recalls.
Hours later she said she received calls informing her she was all over social media. It took the effort of her in-laws to come and show her the video for her to see.
"I didn’t know I was trending because I don’t have a smartphone," she said.
Ann Keter demonstrates the phenomena surrounding the Equator, distinguishing between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres to tourists in Mogotio, Baringo County, on April 4, 2024.[ Kipsang Joseph, Standard]
Ann understands five foreign languages, including Japanese, Chinese, Italian, Spanish, and French, in addition to Swahili and English. By Kipsang Joseph, The Standard
Kenya’s veteran opposition leader and former prime minister Raila Odinga. PHOTO | NMG
Djibouti’s entry into the race for the next African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson on Tuesday could see member states in two key blocs in the Eastern Africa region take sides ahead of the voting next year.
Djibouti officially confirmed it was fronting its Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf as a candidate for the next AUC chairperson, becoming the third person to show interest in the continental top post. Kenya’s opposition leader Raila Odinga and Somalia’s former Foreign Affairs minister Fawzia Adam had announced their candidature earlier.
Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf. PHOTO | X via Mahmoud Ali Youssouf (@ymahmoudali)
But while the post will only be contested by countries in Eastern Africa, Djibouti’s entry means there won’t be unity on one candidate for now, continuing a past trend.
Djibouti, Kenya and Somalia belong to the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (Igad), which includes Uganda, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan and Eritrea.
Sudan is suspended from taking part in African Union activities for now and is ineligible to vote following an October 2021 coup.
Kenya and Somalia also belong to the East African Community (EAC), which also includes Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, DR Congo, Uganda and South Sudan. In ordinary circumstances, they usually coalesce around one candidate to raise their chances. Sometimes it is not always the case.
Until rules were changed to allow rotation of posts, these countries often went for each other’s turfs. In 2017, Kenya fronted a candidate for the AUC chairperson’s position and Djibouti went for the deputy, a sure way of dividing the vote as each looked for support from the same allies who were also seeking other positions and hence needed trade-offs.
Eventually, after Kenya’s Amina Mohamed lost to Chadian diplomat Mahamat Faki, claims of “betrayal” emerged from Nairobi. Djibouti would late issue a statement refuting giving its vote to another candidate, however.
The three candidates, nonetheless, offer each of these countries a chance to galvanise locally as well as hunt for votes from other blocs not eligible to front the chair. The deputy AUC chair will go to the north, while three other regions; south, west and central will compete for the remaining commissioner positions.
Youssouf, 59, a multilingual Djiboutian has served in the Foreign Ministry since the 1990s. His government said his experience in diplomatic work gives him an edge over his competitors, saying he knows the intricacies of the AUC and is ready to “serve and breathe new life into the pan-African organisation.”
The career diplomat is credited with conflict resolution through dialogue and negotiation in discharging his duties and is multilingual, fluent in French, English and Arabic. His campaign team includes some regional political experts, including, incidentally, a veteran Somali diplomat.
Kenya has already embarked on shuttle diplomacy, mounting a campaign team drawn from both President William Ruto’s side and Mr Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja Kenya Coalition.
Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga have sought the support of EAC heads of State and government as well as others beyond the bloc, the latest being the Ghana President Nana Akufo-Addo.
The campaign, however, is set to officially commence next month once all interested candidates submit their applications.
The holder of the office is elected and serves a four-year term renewable once.
“The African Union Executive Council today unanimously adopted a critical decision that it is the turn of the Eastern Africa region to submit candidates for the position of Chairperson of the African Union Commission. The elections will be held in February 2025,” the statement dated March 15, 2024, read in part.
Djibouti has challenged Kenya before in international elections when it bid for the UN Security Council membership even though the AU had endorsed Nairobi for the non-permanent position.
Djibouti would lose in the second round after Kenya garnered the relevant two-thirds majority vote for the seat for the 2021-22 term. This year, Djibouti has not bid for the position, which is open for the eastern Africa region again. Instead, Somalia received the AU endorsement to go ahead with campaigns for the June 2024 vote, for the 2025-26 term. By ROSELYN OBALA, The East African
FILE - A man attends prayers at a mosque in Libreville, Gabon, Jan. 27, 2017. Muslims invited Christians to join in their prayers for peace on April 10, 2024, as the country holds meetings to discuss transferring power to a civilian government.
YAOUNDE, CAMEROON — In Gabon, Christians joined Muslims this week to pray for peace as the country holds a month-long “national dialogue” intended to pave the way for military leaders to transfer power to a civilian government.
Clerics say that among the approximately 700 civilians who attended this year’s Eid al-Fitr prayers Wednesday at the Central Mosque in Gabon's capital, Libreville, were scores of Christians. The Eid al-Fitr prayers marked the end of the holy month of Ramadan.
Tidjani Babagana, grand imam of Muslims in Gabon, told Gabon's state TV that during prayers he launched an appeal for reconciliation, peace, temperance and internal harmony among citizens who are looking forward to changes at the helm of the government. He also reminded civilians who are waiting for the government to improve their living conditions that it is a prescription in the Holy Quran to respect state authority.
Babagana said both Muslims and Christians should celebrate Eid al-Fitr as a sign of fraternity, interreligious tolerance and living together in peace, despite the challenges Gabon is facing.
The faithful who gathered for prayers say the country has suffered a crime wave — including theft, assault and highway robbery — since transitional president General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema ordered the release of over 500 prisoners in late March.
The general seized power from President Ali Bongo in a bloodless coup last August. Nguema said he took control to improve living conditions in the oil-producing nation because its citizens remained poor during the 56 years of leadership by Ali Bongo and his father, Omar Bongo.
Gabon's Civil Society Group says the central African state now faces the challenges of a transition to civilian rule. A transitional charter introduced by the general last November bars all members of the current government from becoming candidates in presidential elections, with the exception of Nguema.
This month, Nguema launched what is billed as an Inclusive National Dialogue, which he said will prepare an economic blueprint and a calendar to organize elections that will hand power to civilians.
Gabon opens national dialogue to bring country back to civilian rule
Bruno Nguema Ela, the president of Gabon's citizens in the diaspora, took part in Eid al-Fitr prayers. He said opposition and civil society want Nguema to reassure civilians that he will not hang on to power.
Ela said Gabon's diaspora is happy with efforts by Nguema to stop the Bongo dynasty from maintaining its grip on power, and added that the transitional government should make sure it hands power to civilians so Gabon does not sink into social unrest and political crisis.
Firman Maurice Nguema, one of the spokespersons with the commission that will lead discussions in Gabon's national dialogue, said General Nguema is committed to providing Gabon with functioning state institutions before handing power to constitutional order. He said Nguema wants Gabon to be a peaceful country where democratic choices and rights and liberties of civilians are respected.
The transitional government says Christians joined Muslims in feasts across the central African state this week. Muslim clerics say that nationwide, prayers were for peace and a return to constitutional order without chaos. VOA
Only 240 of the reports have been recorded as hate crimes for investigation by Police Scotland, with the vast majority not deemed worthy of further attention.
Publishing figures for the first seven days under Scotland’s new hate crime law on Wednesday, the force said the majority of complainers opted to stay anonymous.
Critics of the new law – which makes it an offence to “stir up” hatred – had warned that it would spark a deluge of vexatious complaints and would waste precious police time.
However, SNP minister Angela Constance, Scotland’s Justice Secretary, defended the new hate crime law and said the number of recorded hate crimes showed why it was “required”.
Ms Constance said: “It is important when we look at the number of hate crimes recorded – 240 – by Police Scotland in one week alone, I think that demonstrates that this legislation is required and needed to protect marginalised and vulnerable communities most at risk of racial hatred and prejudice.”
Police Scotland acknowledged that there had been a “substantial increase” in hate reports since the new law kicked in – but insisted that the impact on frontline policing had been “minimal”.
The Scottish Police Federation (SPF), which represents rank and file officers, told i last week that staff in the command and control centre were “overwhelmed” with hate crime complaints.
The SPF said staff have taken overtime to sift through the huge number of reports, while backroom administration staff have been pulled in to help sort through the claims.
JK Rowling dares police to arrest her as Scotland brings in new hate crime laws
The SNP-led Scottish Government’s new law has established an offence for stirring up hatred over-protected characteristics, including transgender identity, sexual orientation, religion, disability and age.
Police Scotland revealed that 7,152 hate crime complaints were made using an online form, with another 141 made via email and 34 made by telephone – taking the total number of reports to 7,327.
Of these, 240 were recorded as hate crimes – 3.3 per cent of all reports – while 30 were logged as non-crime hate incidents, meaning they did not meet the threshold for a criminal offence, but details will be kept on file.
Some 120 of the crimes reported had a racial aggravator attached, the figures showed, while 42 had an aggravator for sexual orientation, 38 for disability, 21 for both age and religion and eight for transgender identity.
Nearly half of all the complaints made online were made on the first day, the figures showed, before the number of reports slowed later in the week.
Slides produced by Police Scotland also showed that only two complaints made under the new law stemming from the Old Firm match between Rangers and Celtic on Sunday.
Scottish Conservatives said the new official figures showed “the huge toll Humza Yousaf’s shambolic hate crime law is already having on Scotland’s overstretched police force”.
The party’s shadow justice spokesperson Sharon Dowey said: “Humza Yousaf should admit he’s got it badly wrong and bin this disastrous law.”
A Police Scotland spokesperson said: “This data highlights the substantial increase in the number of online hate reports being received since 1 April.
“This significant demand continues to be managed within our contact centres and, so far, the impact on frontline policing, our ability to answer calls and respond to those who need our help in communities across Scotland has been minimal.”
The spokesperson added: “All complaints received are reviewed by officers, supported by dedicated hate crime advisers, and dealt with appropriately, whether that is being progressed for further assessment, or closed as they do not meet the criteria under the legislation.” By Adam Forrest, i News
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