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The recent agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia has already set the framework for this year’s bumpy interstate relations in the Horn of Africa

Ethiopia’s quest for Red Sea access

Prima facie, the deal seems to be a diplomatic success, fulfilling Ethiopia's long-standing need for immediate access to the sea. Ever since Eritrea’s independence, Djibouti, a port on the Red Sea, has served as Ethiopia's most important trade route. However, Djibouti charges Ethiopia about US$1.5 billion annually in port fees, prompting Ethiopia to explore other alternatives in neighbouring Eritrea, Sudan, Somaliland, and Kenya. The 2018 Peace Deal with Eritrea was greeted with optimism by Ethiopia as a move to reclaim duty-free access to Eritrean ports. There were also announcements with Somalia’s former President, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, for Ethiopia to jointly invest in four Somalian seaports. In August 2023, Ethiopian Minister for Transport and Logistics Alemu Sime visited Kenya's Lamu port too. However, Ethiopia’s plan to use any of these ports never materialised so far.

The 2018 Peace Deal with Eritrea was greeted with optimism by Ethiopia as a move to reclaim duty-free access to Eritrean ports.

As a matter of fact, Ethiopia has been eyeing Berbera and Port Sudan since 2005. However, Ethiopia was unable to carry out a complete transition from Djibouti due to several challenges, including logistical problems and the possibility of conflict with Somalia. Under an agreement with Emirates logistics management company, DP World, Ethiopia acquired a 19-percent stake in Berbera Port in 2018. At the time, Somalia denounced the deal as illegal. However, Ethiopia failed to meet its obligations and ultimately had to give up its share.

Everything changed in 2023 when Ethiopia's Prime Minister declared that his landlocked country must break the ‘geographic prison’ of approximately 120 million Ethiopians. He further explained that access to the Red Sea is an ‘existential issue’, linking it with demographic connections that go back to the 3rd-century kingdom of Aksum. Although Abiy Ahmed refrained from mentioning war in his speech, his irredentist speeches supporting Ethiopia's territorial claims to Eritrea’s Red Sea ports raised concerns about the possibility of further conflict. Now that Ethiopia has managed to achieve its goal diplomatically, the possibility of another Ethiopia-Eritrea War in the short run may be ruled out.

Under an agreement with Emirates logistics management company, DP World, Ethiopia acquired a 19-percent stake in Berbera Port in 2018.

Nevertheless, this agreement is by no means a catalyst for peace in the region. Instead, the agreement has further increased the level of uncertainty in an already volatile region. Somalia called this an active violation of its sovereignty and recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia. Furthermore, on 6 January, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed a bill nullifying the agreement. The Somalian President also requested Ethiopia and Somaliland to withdraw the agreement. However, neither Somaliland nor Ethiopia is prepared to relinquish what has been called a historic pact.

Potential implications of the agreement

Somaliland is located in the northwestern part of Somalia, in the wider Horn of Africa region. In 1991, Somaliland gained its de facto independence after a bloody secessionist struggle which killed tens of thousands of people. In stark contrast to the civil war that continued to engulf neighbouring Somalia, relative stability persisted in Somaliland and it maintained a distinct identity for over 30 years. According to Freedom House, Kenya and Somaliland are the only countries in East Africa that are free in terms of political rights and civil liberties. Yet, Somaliland is not officially recognised by any country.

In fact, the often-overlooked region in the Horn of Africa gained international attention when Taiwan made the surprise announcement of its formal ties with Somaliland in 2020. Indeed, Somaliland is an important strategic asset for Ethiopia since it boasts of an 850-kilometre coastline located strategically on the Gulf of Aden. It is free from piracy problems and also covers the entrance to the Bab al-Mandeb, a chokepoint used by one-third of global trade. The often-overlooked region in the Horn of Africa gained international attention when Taiwan made the surprise announcement of its formal ties with Somaliland in 2020.

The agreement appears to be mutually beneficial. Under the agreement, Ethiopia will establish a military base and a commercial maritime zone and in exchange, will share military and intelligence information with Somaliland. The prevalence of terrorism and piracy has made the region vulnerable. Furthermore, Houthi rebels recently launched attacks on ships in the Red Sea in response to Israel's aggressive posture over the Gaza Strip. Given the strategic significance of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, this deal could also result in increased security in the Red Sea region.

Geopolitical tug-of-war over the Red Sea

The agreement will certainly benefit the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a major player in the Red Sea region with friendly ties to both Ethiopia and Somaliland. In 2016, Somaliland's government inked a 30-year concession agreement with Dubai-based port operator, DP World, to expand and modernise Berbera port. Additionally, the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD) is one of the principal funders for the Berbera Corridor, connecting Somaliland to the Ethiopian hinterland. The transformation of the Berbera Corridor into an economic hub has been hailed as a major economic turning point. The UAE was probably an influencer in favour of the agreement.

However, the agreement seems to be a geopolitical minefield, causing dissatisfaction among multiple stakeholders. First of all, the idea of an Ethiopian fleet stationed near its coast would be of great concern for Eritrea. Djibouti will also not be satisfied, as the deal would result in significant revenue losses. The agreement would likely annoy Saudi Arabia and Egypt as well because it could put the UAE ahead of them in the battle for control over the Red Sea.

China was already irked by the developments in the region, particularly from the proximity of Taiwan and Somaliland. Taiwan established its de facto embassy in Somaliland’s capital Hargeisa in August 2020, and Somaliland reciprocated with a representative office in Taipei the following month. According to a recent study by the American Enterprise Institute, the recent unrest in Somaliland's Las Anod region is China’s first proxy war in Africa. China has already appointed Xue Bing as the Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa and is expected to increase diplomatic pressure against the deal.

The agreement would likely annoy Saudi Arabia and Egypt as well because it could put the UAE ahead of them in the battle for control over the Red Sea.

Finally, this deal jeopardises diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, two countries with a protracted history of hostility and military confrontation. Ogaden, Ethiopia's Somali territory, was the site of a bloody conflict between the two countries from Somalia's independence in 1960 to the end of the Cold War. Although military intervention appears unlikely at this time, Somalia has appealed to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the larger international community for intervention.

In fact, in the wake of the agreement, the United States (US), United Kingdom (UK), European Union (EU), Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and the Arab League have all urged Ethiopia to withdraw from the agreement and urged all parties to engage in constructive dialogue to resolve differences. Nonetheless, Ethiopia and Somaliland seem unfazed by the backlash and are determined to stick to the agreement.

An uncertain 2024 for the region

Landlocked Ethiopia’s Red Sea conundrum dates back to its 20-year border war with Eritrea. Despite a ceasefire in 2000, hostilities between the two nations persisted and Ethiopia could never use Massawa and Assab ports again. With this agreement, Ethiopia successfully managed to secure access to the sea and diversify its access to seaports. Although the details of the agreement will be finalised during follow-up meetings in the coming days, the declaration has already set the framework for this year’s bumpy interstate relations in the Horn of Africa.


Samir Bhattacharya is Senior Research Associate at Vivekananda International Foundation

The year 2024 began with political turmoil in the Horn of Africa region. On the very first day of the year, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a deal with President Muse Bihi Abdi of Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia. The deal will give Ethiopia, a landlocked country, direct commercial and military access to the Red Sea. As per the deal, Somaliland agreed to lease a military port in the Gulf of Aden and 20 kilometres of Somaliland's coastline to Ethiopia for 50 years. In return, Somaliland would be formally recognised as a sovereign state and acquire a portion of the shares in Ethiopia's flagship carrier, Ethiopian Airlines. This makes Ethiopia the first country in Africa to recognise Somaliland as an independent state, and the second country in the world after Taiwan, another self-governing territory lacking international recognition. By SAMIR BHATTACHARYA, Observer Research Foundation

Lawyer Michael Aboneka (L) and his lawyer George Musisi at the Constitutional court

Not-for-profit organization, Walezi Wa Katiba Foundation and lawyer, Michael Abonek have petitioned the Constitutional court seeking an order to compel members of parliament who are concurrently serving as ministers to vacate their offices. 

The activists argue that the current arrangement, where MPs get appointed as ministers, is contrary to the doctrine of separation of powers whose intent is to prevent the concentration of power and provide checks and balances.  

According to the petitioners, the Constitution provides for the independence of the three arms of government; parliament, judiciary, and the executive. They argue that the three arms have a distinct function independent of the other.

Through their lawyers from PACE Advocates, the petitioners contend that an MP who doubles as the vice president, prime minister or minister without resigning his or her office as MP belongs to two arms of government. They describe this as a fusion of both the executive and legislature contrary to the doctrine of separation of power.  

Uganda's ninth and current vice President Jessica Alupo is also the current Woman MP for Katakwi district while prime minister Robinah Nabbanja is also currently the Woman MP for Kakumiro district. Many several MPs are also serving as ministers.

The petitioners' lawyer, George Musisi says that the MPs who double as ministers receive double remuneration and allowances which is a waste of the taxpayers' money.

"This argument has come up in the past. MPs who have been appointed for ministerial posts have tended to choose to receive the salary of a member of parliament because it is normally higher. MPs who get appointed to the executive however earn allowances and other benefits in the form of cash drawn from the consolidated fund. The records also indicate that the double benefits and emoluments such as vehicles, fuel allowances, and per diem for trips abroad is a wasteful expenditure and waste of taxpayers' money contrary to public trust," said Musisi.

There were earlier similar concerns about instances where the president appointed judges to serve in positions that fall under the executive. In 2021 the Constitutional court led by late justice Kenneth Kakuru ruled that it is illegal for a judge to be appointed to any executive or constitutional office before his/her resignation.

Kakuru’s decision was to directly affect people like the current director of public prosecutions Jane Frances Abodo, the then IGG Irene Mulyagonja, and the serving Electoral Commission chairperson justice Simon Byabakama.    

The attorney general appealed to the Supreme court and secured a stay of execution order which gave the said office bearers powers to remain in the same positions save for Mulyagonja who has since returned to the Constitutional court. In their petition filed against the attorney general, the petitioners contend that the MPs who double as ministers are accountable to the president as their supervisor, and at the same time, they are expected to be independent and provide oversight over the same executive.  

In his affidavit, Aboneka states that chapters 6, 7, and 8 of the Constitution provide for independent arms of government, parliament, executive, and judiciary - each with clear and distinct functions independent of the other.  

"That I know that a prime minister forms the executive arm of government under chapter 7 as the leader of government business under Article 108A (2)(a) and therefore an MP who also doubles as a prime minister without resigning their former role as MP belongs to two arms of government; the legislature and executive which is a conundrum and a fusion of both executive and legislature contrary to the doctrine of separation of powers, checks and balances and legislative independence," Aboneka states.

According to the petition, an MP who also doubles as vice president is bound by the collective responsibility doctrine to the extent that they cannot present any views of their constituents that are contrary to the cabinet /executive resolution position thereby denying their constituents the right to representation.

They now want court to address the alleged violation of the constitution and oversee that there is harmonious co-existence of the provisions of the Constitution. By URN, The Observer

A research project exploring how the UK's rail network can be improved for disabled people is being run as part of a unique PhD programme at Coventry University.

Funded by the Motability Foundation, the research aims to improve disabled people's experience of using transport. The research, supported by the university's Research Centre for Future Transport and Cities, is being undertaken by Stephanie McPherson-Brown. 

Stephanie's research is focusing on the psychology behind why disabled people can feel reluctant to use trains to get around, and what can be done to improve this.

As part of the project Stephanie is interviewing people with a range of disabilities to find out about their experience with rail travel. She is also reviewing the support available and report whether it is good enough and offer recommendations on how this can be improved.

Stephanie's research project follows the release of statistics from the Department for Transport[1] showing that 31 per cent of disabled people in the UK do not use rail, of which 42 per cent said they were unlikely to use rail in the future.

She said: "There are all sorts of reasons why disabled people might not want to use our railway network – be it stations not providing reasonable access, travellers feeling anxious about having a negative experience during their journey, or even the general reliability of our trains.

"Growing up, I've experienced my own share of negative experiences on public transport, such as dealing with stations with poor accessibility or a lack of information around disabled provision at stations when looking online.

"I often forced myself to battle through it and not make a fuss. It was only when I reflected on it that I felt much more could be done to improve things.

"If my research can paint a picture of the problems people are dealing with, identify the key areas to improve and offer solutions that will be a great first step in improving how disabled people get around."

Further research planned by the first group of PhD students researching transport and accessibility will look into how air travel and personal transport can be improved for disabled people.

Professor Paul Herriotts, who is leading the PhD programme, added: "The goal of the accessible transport PhD programme is to enable disabled people to be at the forefront of researching solutions to the problems they have to deal with every day when travelling.

"We are looking forward to seeing what Stephanie and her fellow students' research uncovers, and we hope it will be the start of valuable and insightful work that creates lasting changes in society."

The project coincides with other work into transport design and accessibility being undertaken at the university. Coventry University, alongside collaborators, has been chosen, to develop and run the UK's first National Centre for Accessible Transport (NCAT) – which is working with disabled people, disabled people's organisations, transport providers and policy makers to both undertake research and develop accessible travel solutions.

Find out more about the Coventry University's Research Centre for Future Transport and Cities and the National Centre for Accessible Transport.

Coventry University is a global, modern university with a mission of creating better futures. We were founded by entrepreneurs and industrialists in 1843 as the Coventry School of Design and we continue to work with businesses to ensure we provide job-ready graduates with the skills and creative thinking to improve their communities. 

 
Suspects in murder of Kenyan-born Ugandan runner Benjamin Kiplagat before Eldoret Court. PHOTO/Print  

An Eldoret court has directed that the two people among them a boda boda operator suspected of killing a Kenyan-born Ugandan runner Benjamin Kiplagat be subjected to mental assessment before taking a plea for murder.

Deputy High Court Registrar Rosemary Onkoba ordered the suspects: David Ekai alias Timo, 25, and Peter Khalumi 30 (pictured), to be escorted to Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital for mental assessment to establish whether they are mentally fit. 

“The suspects should be escorted by the police to Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Eldoret for mental assessment to establish whether they are fit to undergo trial,” directed Onkoba.

She further directed that the two be held at Eldoret GK remand prison pending their appearance before the duty Judge on January 31, 2024, where they are set to be charged with murder.

The suspects were arrested in connection with the gruesome murder of the athlete who was found fatally stabbed in his car in Kimumu estate along Eldoret-Iten highway in Uasin Gishu county on the eve of New Year.


At the scene of the crime, officers recovered a knife suspected to have been used in the killing of the 34-year-old runner from one of the suspects with police indicating that the motive of the incident appeared to have been robbery. 

The suspects are said to have stolen money and cell phone from the deceased during the tragic incident. The slain runner who hails from Elgeyo Marakwet ounty is the fourth athlete to be murdered in the area.

 

Two-time cross-country World champion Agnes Tirop was killed in her Iten townhouse three years ago. Her estranged husband Ibrahim Rotich is the main suspect in the murder.

Rotich who is out on a Sh400,000 cash bail has denied a murder charge in connection with her brutal killing before Justice Robert Wanada of Eldoret High Court.

A Kenyan-born-Bahrain athlete Damaris Muthee’s decomposing body was found at her male Ethiopian runner’s house two years ago.

The Ethiopian runner who is the main suspect in Muthee’s killing has since fled the country to evade justice. 

Last month, August, another runner from Rwanda, Rubayit Siragi was killed in Iten town in what the police believe was a fight with another Kenyan runner over a woman. The suspect has since appeared in court and denied the murder charge.

CS Mvurya has in the past said the main aim of organizing them into cooperatives was informed by the desire of the state to enable the artisanal miners access training, equipment and financial services.

In the reforms, the Government has also signed a memorandum of understanding with Indonesia in building a centralized mineral testing laboratory in the country. Currently, testing of all minerals is being undertaken abroad.

It was also declared that 20 percent royalty from the minerals will be shared with respective county governments.

The Government has already approved Sh2 billion in the budget for 2023/2024 for counties to receive their rightful share.

It was also noted that 10 percent of revenue from the minerals will go to the respective communities as part of public participation. By Wycliffe Kipsang, People Daily 

South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit, centre, attends the IGAD summit in State House Entebbe, in Entebbe, Uganda, January 18, 2024
 
THE African Union (AU) has called for an immediate ceasefire in Sudan and a constructive dialogue between the country’s warring factions. Thursday’s call was joined by the European Union and the United Nations amid concerns that the fighting could destabilise an already volatile region.
 
The AU, EU and US also called for an end to tension between Somalia and Ethiopia over an agreement signed between Ethiopia and Somalia’s breakaway Somaliland region. This comes as the Tigray region of Ethiopia teeters on the brink of a catastrophic famine.
 
AU, EU and US representatives, who spoke in Kampala, Uganda, after the meeting of an east African regional bloc, said that the two crises were threatening regional stability in the Horn of Africa.
 
Sudan’s military and the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have been fighting for control of the country since April. Long-standing tensions erupted into street battles in the capital and other areas, including the western Darfur region.
 
According the AU, the EU and the United Nations, the fighting has displaced seven million people and kept 19 million children out of school. UN envoy for Sudan Ramtane Lamtane said the first step should be an enforceable ceasefire that can be closely monitored.
 
"Guns must be silenced,” he said, adding that the war endangers the “stability of the entire region and beyond.
 
Annette Weber, EU special envoy for the Horn of Africa, said the two crises have a common link to the Red Sea, where Yemen’s Houthi-led government has carried out missile attacks on shipping.
 
Appearing to be speaking on behalf of the United States as well as the continent’s former colonial rulers, Ms Weber called for a collective response by Horn of Africa countries to the crisis.
 
Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s war-scarred Tigray region is on the verge of a catastrophic famine comparable to the 1984-85 disaster that led to the organisation of global fundraising concert Live Aid, according to officials there.
 
Although the federal government has denied that there is a famine, there have been acute food shortages since the onset of the Tigray war in November 2020.The brutal two-year conflict left a staggering 600,000 people dead.
 
Famine is now widespread across at least 12 districts in Tigray, with around 225 people recorded as having already died of starvation in the last few months.Tigray’s President Getachew K Reda says at least 90 per cent of people could perish. He is urging both the international community and the Ethiopian government to intervene in Tigray to save lives. By Roger McKenzie, Morning Star

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