One Kenya Alliance principals could sign a pact binding them to work together in next year's polls, dampening hopes of a reunion with ODM boss Raila Odinga. 

It was hoped the Oka chiefs would agree to a political deal with Raila to cobble together a political movement that would face off against Deputy President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance. 

The Star has established that the Oka technical committee has prepared a coalition agreement that could be signed as early as mid-November, formally ushering in the third horse in the 2022 polls.  

Oka brings together Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Kanu's Gideon Moi, Musalia Mudavadi of ANC and Ford Kenya chief Moses Wetang'ula. 

Cyrus Jirongo has also joined Oka in what was seen as part of a bigger plan to ring-fence Western Kenya vote bloc away from Raila, who is believed to hold a firm grip. 

On Thursday, Kimilili MP Chris Wamalwa, a ranking member of the Oka political board, said the technical team has finalised the alliance's instruments, which also bind the chiefs together. 

“The principals have had an opportunity to look at the agreement and they will be signing it as soon as their dairies allow,” Wamalwa said. 

Kalonzo yesterday fired a salvo at Raila, saying he should retire with President Uhuru Kenyatta next year as "age has caught up with" him. 

“My thinking is that Uhuru should go home with Raila. If you look at the ages of all the others who want to contest for the presidency, Raila is way ahead of us,” Kalonzo said in an interview with Emoo FM. 

He expressed confidence that other Oka principals will pick him as the flagbearer.

“Oka is emerging everywhere. We now have Kadu Asili on board and before December, you will see wonders,” Kalonzo added.

Analysts say Raila has the best chance of taking on Ruto as opposed to any of the Oka principals.

It has emerged that apart from the coalition agreement, there is a detailed agreement committing the five principals to Oka until the 2022 election.  

The legally binding pact is part of a strategy to avert betrayal and deal with issues of trust that bogged down Nasa.  

Raila, Musalia, Wetang'ula and Kalonzo formally disengaged from Nasa at the end of August.  

Raila had been accused of ignoring a secret agreement to step down and support Kalonzo in the 2022 polls.  

This means that once Oka puts pen to paper with regard to the deal, neither of them will jump ship to any other coalition, including that led by Raila until a review is made after the next polls. 

“The agreement is ready and it legally commits our principals to work together under Oka with the view of forming the next government,” Wamalwa said. 

However, as Wamalwa skirted around on the nitty-gritty of the agreement, Kanu secretary general Nick Salat said the Oka leaders will soon commit themselves to their 2022 plans. 

“The agreement will provide that Oka will field a presidential candidate in the 2022 presidential election and for us as Kanu, we have already endorsed Gideon,” Salat said. 

The Kanu point man stressed that the agreement may not affect the party’s resolve to go all the way to the ballot, especially after its national delegates congress green-lighted the Baringo senator. 

Gideon was on September 30 endorsed by the party’s NDC to be the flag-bear and also given the mandate to negotiate with other like-minded leaders in light of the 2022 polls.  

The latest details come at a time when Oka has been seen as largely indecisive and lacking steam to compete with Raila and Ruto. 

Raila and Ruto are scouring for votes across the country, with analysts saying the Oka bandwagon is dithering and would be ‘donkey’ if it goes all the way. 

There have been reports that some Oka chiefs are quietly negotiating with Raila over their place in the 2022 power matrix. 

Last week, the Oka chiefs cried foul over what they claimed is a plan by the Mount Kenya Foundation—a panel of tycoons and influential businessmen from Uhuru’s turf—to favour Raila. 

The team said it was mandated by Uhuru to scout for his successor.  It has held separate sessions with Raila and Oka chiefs to listen to their views and agenda for Mt Kenya before recommending one of them to the President. 

However, there have been questions about why the group is not meeting all the 2022 presidential candidates. 

On Wednesday, religious leaders under the Federation of Evangelical and Indigenous Christian Churches of Kenya asked the MKF to be fair and genuine as they search for Uhuru's successor. 

“Even those who have not been called to the meetings have a following too, and you never know how tomorrow will be. It’s wise to hear out everyone who is in that race,” Bishop Samuel Njiriri, the federation’s chairman, said.  Edited by A.N By James Mbaka, The Star

The economic recovery has weakened in most rich nations due to the impact of the Delta variant of coronavirus, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says.

The fund cut its 2021 growth forecasts for advanced economies - in particular the US, Japan and Germany - blaming continued health risks, supply chain issues and high inflation.

But it thinks most rich countries will grow faster than expected in 2022. 

And it warned developing ones may fall back due to a growing "vaccine divide".

The global economy contracted sharply in 202, but rebounded strongly in the first half of this year as countries unlocked.

However, in its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF said "momentum had weakened" since then as the highly transmissible Delta variant of coronavirus stopped "a full return" to normality.

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath pointed to the supply chain disruption that many countries have faced due to surging demand and supply chain bottlenecks, warning it was "feeding inflation in many countries".

She added that the health risks from Covid had affected consumer demand and overall, "risks to economic prospects have increased".

While the IMF cut its projection for global growth in 2021 only marginally to 5.9%, it said this masked large downgrades for some rich countries.

• Notably it expects the world's largest economy, the US, to grow by only 6% this year, down from the 7% the fund forecast in July .
• And it said Japan and Germany, the third and fourth largest, would expand by 2.4% and 3.1% respectively - down from 2.8% and 3.6%.

The UK's economy is forecast to grow by 6.8% this year, down from the previous forecast of 7.0%.

However, the fund expects most advanced economies to return their pre-pandemic growth trends next year as supply chain issues ease, and to exceed it by about 1% in 2024.

By contrast, it thinks most emerging and developing economies (excluding China) are likely to fall back next year and remain 5.5% below their pre-pandemic forecast by 2024.

"These divergences are a consequence of the 'great vaccine divide' and large disparities in policy support," Ms Gopinath said.

"While over 60% of the population in advanced economies are fully vaccinated and some are now receiving booster shots, about 96% of the population in low-income countries remain unvaccinated." 

The global community needed to "step up" to ensure equitable vaccine access for every country, she added.

The post lockdown recovery is getting messy. That is the message from the IMF's twice yearly review of the world economy.

"Longer than expected" supply disruptions are feeding into inflation, and led to downgrades to growth this year for the US and UK. The biggest impact though has been felt in developing economies where a lack of vaccinations, and exposure to rising commodity and food prices has hit prospects.

While global inflationary pressures should abate in general in the middle of next year, the IMF groups the UK alongside the US and some emerging economies as places where there are "upside risks" from rising prices.

The biggest risk is, of course, a resurgence of Covid variants, especially in countries with slow vaccination progress. The UK's vaccine rollout success is singled out in contributing to a rebound in the economy.

After a sharper downgrade to 2021 prospects for the US than UK, the PM and chancellor will be able to claim the IMF is predicting Britain has the highest growth in the G7 this year.

This should be taken with a pinch of salt. Certainly ground that was lost is being made up, but a bigger fall than any other G7 nation in 2020, because of having suffered the worst pandemic first wave, makes a reopening of the economy appear like a boom. Argentina is growing even more than the UK, but it also lost just under a tenth of the value of its economy last year.

But the big picture is now supply problems and price rises. The problem is that it makes central banks, including the Bank of England, more likely to raise interest rates more quickly.

On fiscal policy, the IMF said countries would have to tread fine between controlling inflation and giving their economies enough stimulus to recover.

However, despite "a high degree of uncertainty", the fund thinks current high levels of inflation globally will return to pre-pandemic levels by mid 2022.

It said that debt in many countries was at record levels due to emergency pandemic spending, and employment remained significantly below pre-pandemic levels.

The IMF added that once health outcomes improved, countries would have to adopt "credible" revenue and spending plans while seeking to balance their books.

The fund also warned against "unnecessary policy accidents" that might rattle financial markets and harm the global recovery - ranging from a failure to lift the US debt ceiling in a timely way to escalating trade tensions. Source: BBC/The Star