Map of Somaliland. Credit: Wikipedia Commons

Recently, whispers of Somaliland’s impending recognition as an independent state have grown louder. Credible assertions are rife that the incoming administration in the US is not opposed to extending acknowledgment of this self-declared republic. Such a move, if realized, stands to reshape the dynamics in the Horn of Africa, a region long defined by its turbulent history and proxies bound in complex alliances in service of narrow geopolitical interests. But what does this mean for Somaliland, and how is it positioned to transform a distant aspiration into reality?

Somaliland, nestled in the northwest corner of Somalia, unilaterally declared its independence in 1991. However, despite its stable governance and booming economy, it remains largely absent from international recognition. With roots tracing back to a colonial history distinct from the rest of Somalia, Somaliland has consistently demonstrated a more democratic and stable profile than its neighbor — a sharp contrast to the turmoil that has beleaguered Somalia for decades. This compelling narrative of stability juxtaposed against regional chaos forms the bedrock on which Somaliland stakes its claim to statehood.

Recent presidential elections in Somaliland, despite periods of tension and violence leading up to the vote, have sharply elevated the argument for an independent and sovereign country. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, also known as Cirro, of the Waddani party, secured the presidency with a strong mandate, securing nearly two-thirds of the vote in a poll that highlighted the resilience of Somaliland’s democratic institutions even amid regional instability. However, international recognition, particularly from a global power such as the US, would carry significant geostrategic weight.

The incoming administration in the US might view Somaliland’s stability as a strategic asset against the backdrop of a volatile neighbor and an opportunity to counter the expansion of influence in the region from Washington’s geopolitical rivals. Yet, such recognition risks igniting further unrest by exacerbating clan divisions within Somaliland and antagonizing Somalia, which has vehemently opposed Somaliland’s independence for more than three decades.

These implications extend beyond the region, potentially affecting global trade routes at the vital Bab Al-Mandab Strait chokepoint, which divides the busy Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden maritime routes. Here, Somali piracy, Houthi escalations, and a semipermanent international naval presence complicate the dynamics at play where a new country is struggling to be born.

Nevertheless, acknowledging Somaliland’s de facto statehood is a step that would validate its aspirations and contributions toward a more stable region. This recognition would affirm the global community’s commitment to stability and self-determination over archaic border adherence, setting a new standard for addressing similar geopolitical realities.

Somaliland’s quest for recognition carries a range of potential benefits and pitfalls. On the plus side, international recognition would solidify its sovereignty, allowing for increased foreign investment and development assistance which would catalyze economic growth and improve infrastructure. Recognizing statehood would also offer Somaliland the opportunity to join international organizations, further embedding it into the global diplomatic and economic system.

However, pitfalls include the risk of heightened regional instability, as recognition might prompt a severe backlash from Somalia, which considers Somaliland an integral part of its territory. Recognition could also set a precedent for other separatist movements around Africa and beyond, potentially reigniting dormant territorial disputes, which might deter some countries from supporting Somaliland’s bid. 

A newly independent Somaliland would realign political dynamics within the Horn of Africa. It could alter alliances and worsen existing tensions, particularly among actors who may have vested interests in either supporting or opposing Somaliland’s independence. Ethiopia, for instance, with its historical ties and strategic interests in Somaliland, might endorse such recognition, seeking to counterbalance Eritrean and Somali influences in the region. Nonetheless, the geopolitics of the Horn are precarious, and the global community must quickly determine whether recognizing Somaliland would bring more stability or further complicate a delicate balance of power.

Given the potential for regional upheaval, there is an argument for establishing an international coalition to safeguard post-recognition Somaliland. Such a coalition should include key global and regional actors committed to ensuring that Somaliland’s transition to recognized statehood occurs peacefully.

This coalition would provide not only diplomatic backing but also tangible support in the form of security assistance and economic aid to help buffer against any immediate retaliatory measures from neighboring states or non-state actors. Establishing such a coalition would signal to Somaliland’s opponents that the international community is serious about maintaining stability and supporting the country’s sovereignty, potentially deterring hostile actions against it.

Opposition to Somaliland’s recognition is likely to be driven primarily by Somalia, which views the move as a direct challenge to its territorial integrity. Other actors who fear the precedent this sets, especially those in restive regions, may also oppose the move indirectly seeking to impose diplomatic costs for any endorsement.

Ultimately, navigating this turbulence will require astute diplomacy and a clear-eyed assessment of both the risks and the long-term benefits of embracing Somaliland as the world’s newest country. However, it is unclear in current contemplations, whether the incoming US administration’s backing would be as pivotal in overcoming diplomatic inertia for Somaliland’s recognition as experts estimate.

The coming months promise a flurry of maneuvering in a bid to clarify where the US stands regarding Somaliland’s independence. And, once again, the Horn of Africa will be at the center of renewed attention as a new White House administration takes the helm.

• Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC. By Hafed Al-Ghwell, Eurasia Review

Dubliner Declan Peppard joined British Airways from school as a reservation sales agent back in 1983 on the princely salary of IR£6,400 a year. It was a modest start to what blossomed into a fruitful 20-year career with the airline that saw Peppard appointed to senior management positions in Zimbabwe, Uganda and Brazil.

Since 2000, Peppard has lived in the Ugandan capital, Kampala, and for the past 20 years he has been at the helm of Travel care Uganda, a corporate travel agency he cofounded in 2005. More than 90 per cent of the company’s turnover is related to outbound business travel, with the remainder accounted for by private holidaymakers, typically from Europe, who come to Uganda mainly for gorilla trekking.

Travel care employs 14 people and, although Uganda is a relatively small market, he says the company has “become a big fish in a small pond and the quality of the service provided by our travel advisers rivals and often surpasses what you’d find anywhere else”, who used to run with Raheny Shamrocks and now keeps fit by going to the gym six times a week and playing what he describes as “lousy” golf.

Peppard attributes his peripatetic career to the fact that, in his early 20s, he became part of BA’s overseas pool, which was a small group of employees who provided cover at BA operations around the world. “This was 1989 when BA still had many expat country managers and airport managers on the payroll and we covered when they were on leave or there was a crisis,” says Peppard. 

“In 1991 I was posted to Zimbabwe as customer service manager with the airline and spent two years there. In 1993 I moved to Uganda as country manager and my key responsibility was to make the London-Entebbe route profitable. With the help of a great team, we succeeded. In 1997 I left Uganda for the role of commercial director for Brazil, with a remit to dramatically improve our sales performance: over the course of two years, we grew sales from $34 million to $64 million.”

In 2000, Peppard was headhunted to run a travel agency in Uganda. Five years later he and two others struck out on their own to set up Travel care Uganda.

Peppard says the sudden shutdown of international travel when Covid hit was a very worrying time for the company but it weathered the storm by getting involved in arranging repatriation flights.

“Thankfully this generated enough income to tide us over with no lay-offs but when it happened, I thought, jeepers we’re really in trouble now,” says Peppard, who has a family of four girls including twins at college in the UK and daughters working in Dublin and Harare.

“Opening and operating a business in Uganda is relatively straightforward. And as long as you adhere to the regulatory requirements, you can grow your business with minimal obstacles,” says Peppard. “It’s crucial to remember that, even though I now hold both Irish and Ugandan passports, I am still a guest in Uganda and must always respect the local laws, culture, and traditions.

“One key aspect of doing business here is the importance of maintaining a respectful and human approach to both colleagues and customers. In Uganda, this personal touch is deeply valued and integral to business success. I sometimes feel that, in Ireland, with the rapid advance of technology, we might have lost a bit of that human connection in our business dealings.” 

The people here are genuinely good-natured and extremely friendly. We are free of violent crime and I have never felt threatened or at risk, even during elections

Peppard says there is a vibrant Irish community in Uganda with events such as St Patrick’s Day, All Irelands and the Six Nations tournament well celebrated.

“Our current ambassador, Kevin Colgan, regularly hosts the Irish community and every one of the ambassadors who have been here in my time have been truly remarkable individuals who have enhanced Ireland’s reputation in the region,” he says. 

Despite being a big fan of the “perfect Ugandan climate, which never gets too hot and is never cold”, Peppard misses the changing seasons and the crisp autumn air that marks the passage of time back home.

“The year here is divided by wet and dry seasons and when it rains, it really rains and there’s a lot of flooding and the road system struggles to cope. You try not to drive anywhere at this point as a normal 15-minute journey could take an hour or even two. At the best of times, Kampala is a bit chaotic with horrendous traffic and overcrowding with private taxis and boda-bodas (bicycle and motorcycle taxis).

“But the people here are genuinely good-natured and extremely friendly. We are free of violent crime and I have never felt threatened or at risk, even during elections.

“Sometimes living in a landlocked country makes me long for the sea as there’s nothing quite like the calming presence of the ocean. And I truly miss St Anne’s Park in Dublin. It’s always been my sanctuary, a place where I could escape, reflect and recharge,” Peppard adds.

“On the plus side, working abroad has given me opportunities I wouldn’t have had at home, particularly in terms of the exceptional training I received during my time with British Airways. The overseas pool programme provided invaluable experience that greatly influenced my career. Now as I approach 41 years in the airline and travel industries, I can confidently say that such international exposure has been pivotal to my success in business.” By Olive Keogh, Irish Times

Malawi’s President Lazarus Chakwera has renewed his appeal for international assistance to address severe food shortages affecting more than one-quarter of the country’s population of 20 million.

Malawi is currently facing one of its worst food shortage situations in decades with about 5.7 million people affected, according to a recent Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee report. This is about a quarter of the country’s population of about 20 million people.

In rural areas, some villagers were reported to be surviving on wild plants like buffalo beans. In a televised address to the nation Wednesday evening, Chakwera discussed the ongoing issue.

"We are not out of the woods yet," he said. "This is why I continue to lobby for international support to address the humanitarian crisis we are facing."

In March of this year, the president appealed for $200 million in food aid for millions of citizens facing starvation due to a drought linked to the El Nino weather conditions. In his renewed appeal on Wednesday, Chakwera acknowledged the donations that Malawi has so far received from various development partners through the U.N. World Food Program.

"From the governments of Sweden and Netherlands, the WFP received a donation of $11.8 million," he said. "I say thank you. From the government of the United States, the WFP received a donation of $7 million, and I say thank you. From the government of the United Kingdom, the WFP received a donation of $3.8 million, and I say thank you. From the government of Japan, the WFP received a donation of $1.9 million, and I say thank you."

Chakwera said additional food aid is urgently needed to save lives.

"If you are out there standing with Malawians and giving them the help they need during this crisis, I can assure you that Malawians are honest and fair-minded people who will remember those who are bringing them food in this season of drought and hunger, and who know how to distinguish them from those who brought them nothing," he said.

Kylie Scott, head of partnerships and communication for the UN’s World Food Program in Malawi, told VOA that the UN’s food agency still needs more assistance.

"At the moment, we have got funding until the end of the year," Scott said. "But there will be a gap until March 2025. So, we are working really hard to make sure that we can close that gap and make sure that no one gets left behind."

In the meantime, Malawi’s Department of Disaster Management Affairs, the World Food Program and several local humanitarian organizations are distributing assistance to communities facing food shortages. By VOA

The Ethics and Anti-corruption Commission (EACC) has once again initiated the prosecution of 47 public officials accused of engaging in graft adding up to Ksh2.1 billion according to its latest corruption report.

The commission has reportedly handed over the files to the  Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions (ODPP) who is expected to make the decision on the way forward. 

Among high-profile officials facing prosecution is Gladys Boss Shollei, the current deputy speaker of the National Assembly who is facing charges of alleged graft during her tenure as the Judiciary Chief Registrar.

Shollei is being accused of the irregular purchase of the Chief Justice’s residence that cost Ksh310 million in 2013. It remains unoccupied to date.

Alongside her then-deputy, EACC has recommended they be charged with abuse of office and lack of project planning.

Former Wajir Governor Mohamed Mohamoud is also facing charges regarding tender irregularities totaling up to Ksh1.2 billion. 

His wife, daughter, and senior aide have also been implicated in the corruption scandal as well as 12 companies connected to him.

Payments to the companies were supposedly made without supporting documents and thus the 12 directors are all facing a court case.

Alex Tolgos, the Elgeyo Marakwet ex-governor, also faces similar charges of tender irregularities amounting to Ksh1.8 million as well as conflict of interest and unlawful acquisition of property.

He is accused of carrying out this deal in the procurement of petroleum products from a company associated with him and a close associate. 

Three senior accountants at the Kenya Rural Roads Authority (KeRRA) are also on the radar of the commission for similar charges in a scheme worth Ksh274 million.

The EACC also urged the parliament to fast-track a conflict of interest bill in order to ensure similar cases are handled efficiently. By Maurine Kirambia, Kenynas.co.ke