While the southwestern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is busy trying to diagnose a mystery illness, the situation in the east remains tense as violent clashes between the Congolese army and M23 rebels take centre stage following the collapse of peace talks that were expected to ease tensions between the DRC and Rwanda.

Why is this happening?

Last week, peace negotiations set for December 15 in Luanda, Angola, were cancelled, crushing hopes of a deal that would put a stop to or at least control DRC’s M23 rebel conflict that has displaced over two million people.

The peace talks would have been a rare meeting between central African leaders in Angola—including DRC President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame, where long-running negotiations have sought to ease tensions between the neighbours linked to the almost three-year M23 insurgency.

Expectations of a deal being signed had sparked hopes for an end to the standoff that has deepened instability in eastern Congo and raised fears of a wider conflict in Africa's Great Lakes region, reminiscent of the two devastating wars between 1996 and 2003 that claimed millions of lives.

A statement from DRC’s presidency said: “The cancellation of this tripartite is caused by the refusal of the Rwandan delegation to take part.”

A press release shared by the presidency, claimed that the breakdown of the talks happened when Rwanda made it a prerequisite for DRC to hold direct talks with the M23 rebels – at the last minute.

In response, Rwanda’s Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe refuted those claims and accused the DRC President of lying. The Rwandan minister shared a timeline of what had happened and who had introduced the talks with the M23 rebels: “The M23 issue was introduced into the Luanda process, not by Rwanda, but by the Angolan Facilitator who had prepared a ‘draft framework agreement’ that he had personally proposed to the Rwandan and Congolese Presidents on 11 and 12 August 2024 respectively.”

“During the fourth ministerial meeting, held on September 14, 2024, in Luanda, Rwanda expressed its position on the need for a political dialogue between the government of the DRC and the M23 with a view to finding a definitive solution to this conflict. And this position was recorded in the minutes of this meeting.”

He said in a letter dated November 30, 2024, “fifteen days before the summit of December 15, 2024, the Facilitator informed Rwanda that ‘the Congolese Party RD has given its agreement to dialogue with the M23 within the framework of the Nairobi Process.’”

According to a statement issued by the ministry, postponing the meeting will allow DRC time to engage directly with M23.

“There are actions that the DRC can and must take for themselves without continually using Rwanda as a pretext for doing nothing. Rwanda remains ready to participate in a summit that would adopt a serious and concrete path to resolve these remaining questions once and for all.” 

Why is this an issue?

The DRC accuses Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebels – one of over 100 armed groups that have been vying for a foothold in mineral-rich eastern Congo near the border with Rwanda. Kigali denies this.

Back in February, Kigali admitted that it has troops and missile systems in eastern Congo to safeguard its security, pointing to a buildup of Congolese forces near the border.

UN experts estimate there are up to 4,000 Rwandan forces in Congo, with “de facto control” over M23 operations.

Rwanda has also called on the DRC to address threats posed by the Hutu rebel group, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), based in eastern Congo.

The overall situation is worsened by Congo’s humanitarian crisis – which the UN claims is the most complex humanitarian crisis in the world and is a result of decades of conflict in the DRC.

According to a UN report, currently, seven million people are internally displaced, while over one million have sought asylum in neighbouring countries like Uganda, Rwanda, and Zambia, which continue to host refugees despite their own challenges. Meanwhile, the DRC itself shelters more than 500,000 refugees from neighbouring nations.

This year, renewed fighting led to more displacements, with North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri provinces hit hardest. Armed group incursions into camps and intercommunal violence caused mass casualties and severe protection risks. The crisis is exacerbated by inadequate shelters, poor sanitation, and limited livelihoods, leaving displaced populations in dire conditions across the country.

Efforts to broker a lasting peace remain uncertain. The continued hostilities, coupled with the collapse of negotiations, highlight the deep mistrust between the DRC and Rwanda. Without effective mediation and immediate humanitarian support, the crisis in eastern Congo is likely to worsen. TRT World