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The Somali and Kenyan governments fear a resurgence by al-Shabaab as a result of the U.S. withdrawing its forces from Somalia. The exit was completed on January 15 in line with the deadline ordered by former President Donald Trump and involved about 600-800 U.S. soldiers under U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM). They had been supporting African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops and training the Somali National Army (SNA) to battle al-Shabaab (East Africa, October 19, 2020).

AFRICOM’s mission in Somalia had more soldiers than any other UN mission in Africa. Its deployment occurred soon after Trump took office and comprised part of the 7,000 U.S. soldiers in Africa. They are deployed in more than ten other African countries ranging from Botswana to Niger, but especially in countries experiencing Islamist militancy (Garowe Online, October, 2020).

In Somalia, U.S. troops’ military actions, including drone strikes, had aided in disrupting the activities of al-Shabaab and a growing Islamic State (IS) faction in Galgala Mountains in Bari region in the northern Somali state of Puntland. In December, for example, the U.S. military said it carried out two airstrikes in an al-Shabaab compound of Qunyo Barrow killing three militants. Six buildings were also destroyed in the strike (africom.mil, January 2).

In addition, in Southern Somalia, al-Shabaab has lost some of its key leaders and fighters in the air strikes. One of the latest leaders to be killed in such an airstrike was Abdulkadir Osman Yarow a.k.a Abdulkadir Commandos, who was killed in near Saakow in the Middle Juba region of southern Somalia (Militant Leadership Monitor, October 6, 2020). In 2020 alone, AFRICOM carried out over 50 airstrikes against al-Shabaab in Somalia (Nation, September 10, 2020).

Somalia’s Concerns About the U.S. Withdrawal

Al-Shabaab remains a lethal militant force, despite the disruptions by AMISOM and U.S. air strikes. Its ability to carry out deadly attacks was demonstrated on January 31, when the group killed at least five people, including a former Somali army commander and two civilians, in an attack on a hotel in Mogadishu.

The hotel, which is located near the main airport in Mogadishu, is frequented by Somali government officials, members of the security forces, and community leaders. The militants exploded a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) at the front entrance of the hotel before armed fighters stormed in. It became the deadliest attack in the weeks since the United States removed its forces from Somalia (Africanews, February 1).

The U.S. withdrawal may also embolden al-Shabaab, which has remained resilient since launching its insurgency in 2006. The Somali government fears that without the U.S. troops’ aerial surveillance and drone bombardments, AMISOM will be less effective. With Somalia and its neighbors remaining at high risk of attack by the militant group, government officials in both Somalia and Kenya appealed to the U.S to reconsider the decision to remove the troops while Somalia remains unstable (The East Africa, October 19, 2020)

Stressing the U.S. as Somalia’s key ally in the fight against al-Shabaab, President Mohammed Abdullahi Mohammed (a.k.a. Farmajo), for example, highlighted that U.S. troops had been instrumental in securing the Horn of Africa after they aided in the removal of al-Shabaab from several strategic locations in country. Al-Shabaab was forced out of the capital Mogadishu in 2011 and strategic port city of Kismayo in 2012, for example. Farmajo indicated that Somalia still needs continued U.S. military and capacity-building support for Somali troops (Garowe Online, October, 2020; FTLSomalia, October 17, 2020).

Kenya’s Concerns about the U.S. Withdrawal

Kenya is also concerned about the U.S. withdrawal. Kenyan Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Macharia Kamau warned the U.S. troop withdrawal would create a space that would aid the resurgence of al-Shabaab and cautioned that the withdrawal would be a costly mistake. His concern was that the gains made against the militant group over the past several years could be lost, especially with al-Shabaab gaining ground in regions where it had been retreating (Garowe Online, October, 2020).

Meanwhile, the U.S. troops are now likely to be stationed in other countries in Africa, such as Kenya itself and Djibouti, where the United States maintains a permanent military base. A Pentagon statement explaining the changes in Somalia indicated that the U.S. was not disengaging from Somalia. Instead, it would retain the capability to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations and collect early warning indicators on threats to the United States from bases outside Somalia (AfricaNews, December 5, 2020).

The U.S military in Kenya trains security forces and helps in the fight against al-Shabaab. Camp Simba and Manda Bay airfield, which are located in the coastal county of Lamu, Kenya, are used for such activities and host both U.S. troops and the Kenya Defense Forces. On January 5, 2020, al-Shabaab raided the camp, killing three Americans, including a U.S. service member and two Department of Defense pilot contractors, when al-Shabaab’s fighters struck a U.S. surveillance plane with rocked propelled grenades. They also destroyed a fuel storage area, making a nearby airstrip unusable (KTNnews, January 15, 2020; The East African, January 22, 2020).

Conclusion

Although U.S. troops have withdrawn from Somalia, the United States has not disengaged from Somalia. That fact provides sufficient confidence to Somalia and Kenya. The much-needed support to the African troops and Somali army through surveillance and airstrikes against al-Shabaab will likely continue under the Biden administration. By: Sunguta West, The Jamestown Foundation

 

Photo Courtesy

U.K. trade with the European Union plunged in January as Britain’s departure from the bloc and widespread coronavirus restrictions dealt a double blow to the nation’s struggling economy. 

Goods exports to the EU fell 40.7% from a month earlier and imports dropped 28.8%, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. The figures contributed to a 2.9% month-on-month decline in overall economic output.

Britain left the European single market on Jan. 1, ending almost half a century of free trade and triggering tariffs, increased paperwork and border delays on both sides of the English Channel. While the drop in trade was magnified by stockpiling ahead of the new rules, economists said the scale of the decline reflected the disruption caused by Brexit.

“The significant slump in U.K. exports of goods to the EU, particularly compared to non-EU trade, provides an ominous indication of the damage being done to post-Brexit trade with the EU by the current border disruption,” said Suren Thiru, head of economics for the British Chambers of Commerce. “The practical difficulties faced by businesses on the ground go well beyond just teething problems.”

Overall, Britain’s exports dropped 19.3% and imports fell 21.6%, the biggest monthly declines since records began in 1997, the ONS said. Shipments to non-EU countries increased slightly, and imports from countries outside the bloc declined about 8%. 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has backed Brexit, saying it would allow Britain to regain control of its laws, borders and fisheries, while helping the U.K. negotiate free-trade deals with countries outside the bloc.

But the EU is Britain’s closest and biggest trading partner, accounting for more than 40% of exports. Brexit critics say it will be very difficult for trade with other countries to counter the impact of increased barriers to trade with the EU.

The government said Friday that the January figures don’t reflect the current state of trade with EU, and overall freight volumes have been back to “normal levels” since the start of February.

”Many businesses have adapted well, and our focus now is on making sure that any business that is still facing challenges gets the support they need to trade effectively with the EU,” the government said in a statement.

The ONS said preliminary data showed that trade began to improve at the end of January.

“It is too early for a definitive read of the Brexit effect, with some evidence of stockpiling ahead of the deadline and signs of some recovery towards the end of the month indicating that the picture could be rather more positive after the initial dust has settled,” Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, said in a note to clients.

(AP)/News Wires

Women and girls walk back after getting food in Bentiu, a 38-kilometer journey, using a path through the bush for fear of being attacked on the main road, near Nhialdu in South Sudan. Rape has been used widely as a weapon in South Sudan. Photo AP

 

BOR, SOUTH SUDAN - A South Sudanese man has been sentenced to seven years in prison for raping a minor, a rare example of a rape conviction in the African country.

Rapes and sexual assault are vastly underreported in South Sudan, and very few perpetrators are punished for their crimes, although the conviction of two soldiers last year who raped a woman in the town of Yei has raised hope for activists.

While announcing the verdict Thursday in the Jonglei state capital, Bor, Judge John Yel ordered convicted rapist Magai Manyang to also pay five cows to the victim’s family as compensation, in line with Dinka customary law.

"The convict will pay five heads of cattle as compensation for the victim or its equivalence on the day of execution,” said Yel.

Prosecuting attorney Manyang Ngueny welcomed the ruling, saying justice had prevailed.

“I agree with the judgment pronounced today by the president of the High Court,” Ngueny told South Sudan in Focus. “Judgment has to be pronounced in accordance with the crime actually committed.”

Manyang, who proclaimed his innocence, said he would appeal the verdict in Juba’s Court of Appeals within 15 days, as allowed by the court.

“This thing that is alleged I have done hasn’t happened,” Nanyang told South Sudan in Focus. “The girl escaped from UNMISS [U.N. Mission in South Sudan] camp and came to my home. I was absent during that time. When I came and found her at home, I asked who she is and my wife told me she was her relative, and I then didn’t bother to send her away.”

He said the victim “made up such allegations and her relatives want to force me to marry her.”

Strong message

David Garang of the Jonglei Civil Society Network praised Manyang’s sentencing, saying it sent a strong message to men who abuse women.

“There are a lot of gender-based violence cases happening in Jonglei state but most of them are not reported, so this one will be a lesson to scare the perpetrators,” Garang told South Sudan in Focus.

Garang urged state authorities and NGOs to sensitize citizens about sexual violence so that such cases are reported, adding that all South Sudanese who commit violence against women or children should be arrested, tried and sent to prison. - Deng Ghai Deng, Voice of America

President John Magufuli has frustrated the World Health Organization during the pandemic by playing down the threat from COVID-19. Photo Reuters

 

Tanzania’s President John Magufuli is in good health and working normally, two officials said, after reports he flew abroad in critical condition with COVID-19.

Magufuli, 61, is Africa’s most prominent coronavirus sceptic. He has not been seen in public since February 27.

Tanzanian opposition leader Tundu Lissu, who left for Belgium after disputing his election defeat to Magufuli last year, has said the president was flown to the private Nairobi Hospital in neighbouring Kenya and then to India in a coma.

However, Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa denied that, blaming the narrative on “hateful” Tanzanians living abroad.

“Tanzanians should be at peace. Your president is around, healthy, working hard,” he said in a speech after Friday prayers in the southern Njobe region. “To spread rumours that he is sick is just an outcome of hate.”

Magufuli was busy at work indoors reviewing files, Majaliwa said, adding that he spoke to him by phone on Friday morning. “I have decided to say this to give hope to Tanzanians that our president is around,” he said. “If he were sick, would I talk to him on the phone? He sent his greetings to you.”

The prime minister’s remarks, along with similar comments from Tanzania’s ambassador in Namibia, Modestus Kipilimba, were the first official reactions since concerns surfaced at the start of this week.

“He’s OK, he’s going on with his job,” Kipilimba told Namibia’s state broadcaster NBC. Neither NBC nor Tanzania’s state broadcaster showed video of Magufuli in their reports.

Tanzania’s information minister and justice minister have this week threatened those spreading rumours with jail time, without directly addressing the concerns.

The main opposition party Chadema on Friday called for an explanation on where the president is.

“We urge the government to come out publicly and say where is the president and what is his condition?” Chadema secretary-general John Mnyika told reporters in Dar-es-Salaam before the prime minister’s comments.

‘The bulldozer’

Kenya’s Nation newspaper had on Wednesday cited unidentified political and diplomatic sources saying that an African leader, which it did not name, was being treated for COVID-19 on a ventilator at Nairobi Hospital. The hospital has not commented.

According to the constitution, 61-year-old Vice President Samia Suluhu Hassan would take over for the rest of the five-year term should the president be unable to carry out his duties.

Nicknamed “The Bulldozer”, Magufuli has frustrated the World Health Organization (WHO) during the pandemic by playing down the threat from COVID-19, saying remedies such as steam inhalation would protect Tanzanians.

The former chemistry teacher has mocked coronavirus tests, denounced vaccines as part of a Western conspiracy to take Africa’s wealth, and opposed mask-wearing and social distancing.

He also insisted for months that COVID-19 had been fended off by prayer, refusing measures such as masks and lockdowns. But last month he conceded it was still circulating after the vice president of semi-autonomous Zanzibar was revealed to have died of the virus.

He also changed his position and encouraged those who wanted to wear masks to do so.

“The government has not forbidden mask-wearing. But we have to be careful about which masks we wear. We will perish. Don’t think we’re loved so much. Economic war is bad,” Magufuli told a congregation at a church service in Dar-es-Salaam last month.

He advised Tanzanians to either make the masks themselves or use those produced locally.

Several Tanzanian officials have died recently, while the finance minister appeared last month coughing and gasping at a news conference outside a hospital to dispel rumours he had died of COVID-19.

Tanzania stopped reporting coronavirus data in May last year when it had reported 509 cases and 21 deaths, according to the WHO, which has urged the government to be more transparent. - Al Jazeera

Former president of Somalia Ali Mahdi Muhammad. He died in Nairobi. [Courtesy]

Former Somalia President Ali Mahdi Muhammad has died in Nairobi, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Information Isamel Mukhtaar Omar has confirmed.  

The 82-year-old ex-president died on Wednesday night at the Nairobi Hospital.

Somalia President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo has announced the lowering of the Republic flag for three days to mourn the death of the former President and the appointment of a National Funeral Committee for the deceased.

Ali Mahdi Mohamed was the fourth president of Somalia. He came to power on January 26, 1991, and served until January 1997. 

President Ali was born in the Mahaday District of the Middle Shabelle region in 1939 and became a member of parliament in 1968.

In 1969 he joined the civilian parliament before the military coup.

He was also a businessman before he was elected president of Somalia in 1991 when the military government was overthrown. Standard

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