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Vaccination exercise by the Nairobi Metropolitan Service targetting matatu operators at the Central Bus Station on September 17, 2021. MERCY MUMO

Vaccine divide hurting low income country economies - IMF

In Summary

•Covid had affected consumer demand and overall, "risks to economic prospects have increased."

•The biggest risk is a resurgence of Covid variants, especially in countries with slow vaccination progress.

 

The economic recovery has weakened in most rich nations due to the impact of the Delta variant of coronavirus, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says.

The fund cut its 2021 growth forecasts for advanced economies - in particular the US, Japan and Germany - blaming continued health risks, supply chain issues and high inflation.

But it thinks most rich countries will grow faster than expected in 2022. 

And it warned developing ones may fall back due to a growing "vaccine divide".

The global economy contracted sharply in 202, but rebounded strongly in the first half of this year as countries unlocked.

However, in its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF said "momentum had weakened" since then as the highly transmissible Delta variant of coronavirus stopped "a full return" to normality.

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath pointed to the supply chain disruption that many countries have faced due to surging demand and supply chain bottlenecks, warning it was "feeding inflation in many countries".

She added that the health risks from Covid had affected consumer demand and overall, "risks to economic prospects have increased".

While the IMF cut its projection for global growth in 2021 only marginally to 5.9%, it said this masked large downgrades for some rich countries.

  • Notably it expects the world's largest economy, the US, to grow by only 6% this year, down from the 7% the fund forecast in July .
  • And it said Japan and Germany, the third and fourth largest, would expand by 2.4% and 3.1% respectively - down from 2.8% and 3.6%.

The UK's economy is forecast to grow by 6.8% this year, down from the previous forecast of 7.0%.

However, the fund expects most advanced economies to return their pre-pandemic growth trends next year as supply chain issues ease, and to exceed it by about 1% in 2024.

By contrast, it thinks most emerging and developing economies (excluding China) are likely to fall back next year and remain 5.5% below their pre-pandemic forecast by 2024.

"These divergences are a consequence of the 'great vaccine divide' and large disparities in policy support," Ms Gopinath said.

"While over 60% of the population in advanced economies are fully vaccinated and some are now receiving booster shots, about 96% of the population in low-income countries remain unvaccinated." 

The global community needed to "step up" to ensure equitable vaccine access for every country, she added.

The post lockdown recovery is getting messy. That is the message from the IMF's twice yearly review of the world economy.

"Longer than expected" supply disruptions are feeding into inflation, and led to downgrades to growth this year for the US and UK. The biggest impact though has been felt in developing economies where a lack of vaccinations, and exposure to rising commodity and food prices has hit prospects.

While global inflationary pressures should abate in general in the middle of next year, the IMF groups the UK alongside the US and some emerging economies as places where there are "upside risks" from rising prices.

The biggest risk is, of course, a resurgence of Covid variants, especially in countries with slow vaccination progress. The UK's vaccine rollout success is singled out in contributing to a rebound in the economy.

After a sharper downgrade to 2021 prospects for the US than UK, the PM and chancellor will be able to claim the IMF is predicting Britain has the highest growth in the G7 this year.

This should be taken with a pinch of salt. Certainly ground that was lost is being made up, but a bigger fall than any other G7 nation in 2020, because of having suffered the worst pandemic first wave, makes a reopening of the economy appear like a boom. Argentina is growing even more than the UK, but it also lost just under a tenth of the value of its economy last year.

But the big picture is now supply problems and price rises. The problem is that it makes central banks, including the Bank of England, more likely to raise interest rates more quickly.

On fiscal policy, the IMF said countries would have to tread fine between controlling inflation and giving their economies enough stimulus to recover.

However, despite "a high degree of uncertainty", the fund thinks current high levels of inflation globally will return to pre-pandemic levels by mid 2022.

It said that debt in many countries was at record levels due to emergency pandemic spending, and employment remained significantly below pre-pandemic levels.

The IMF added that once health outcomes improved, countries would have to adopt "credible" revenue and spending plans while seeking to balance their books.

The fund also warned against "unnecessary policy accidents" that might rattle financial markets and harm the global recovery - ranging from a failure to lift the US debt ceiling in a timely way to escalating trade tensions. Source: BBC/The Star

Kenya High Commissioner to the UK Manoah Esipisu and Christie NHS Foundation Trust CEO Peter Roger sign a deal on cooperation in capacity building in oncology in London Image: COURTESY

 

Kenya to send 20,000 nurses on a three-year contract.

In Summary

• The deal was signed on July 29 on collaboration in the healthcare workforce.

• It allows Kenyan healthcare professionals to work in the National Health Service of the UK.

The first batch of Kenyan nurses to join the UK healthcare workforce is expected to leave at the end of this month.

Kenya will send 20,000 nurses on a three-year contract in an agreement signed between the two countries when President Uhuru Kenyatta visited the UK in July.

The bilateral agreement was signed on July 29 for collaboration in the healthcare workforce. It permits Kenyan healthcare professionals to work for the National Health Service.

The Labour ministry, through the National Employment Authority, has been mandated to recruit qualified nurses to the UK in collaboration with the Health Ministry.

Health PS Susan Mochache, her Labour counterpart Peter Tum and officials from the Nursing Council of Kenya have been to the UK to negotiate terms.

“The visit is also meant to explore ways of strengthening the health system back in the country to make Kenya have global standards in training and patient care in addition to addressing unemployment for our nurses,” the Health Ministry said in a statement.

The team held meetings in London with the Department of Health and Social Care, the National Health Service, the Nursing and Midwifery Council, the Oxford Hospital Foundation Trust and Manchester University and Christie Foundation Hospital.

The nurses are projected to earn about Sh450,000 a month. According to Chelugui, they will get three-month free accommodation on arrival for the three-year contract. The deal is renewable for another three years.

The UK government will pay for air tickets, with each nurse receiving a further Sh750,000 relocation allowance.

“Those willing to take permanent UK citizenship will also be eligible after working for five years,” Chelugui said. 

The aim of the deal is to capitalise on qualified but unemployed health workers in the country.

There are 894 Kenyans working across all roles in the NHS in England, making Kenyans the 30th largest nationality group.

A statement by the British High Commission in Nairobi said the special arrangement was part of a request by the Kenya government to capitalise on qualified but unemployed health workers.

In July, Kenyatta witnessed the signing of the Kenya-UK Health Alliance, which will bring together the UK and Kenyan universities and teaching hospitals.

“Our health partnership with Kenya is 30 years old and growing stronger by the month. This new agreement on health workers allows us to share skills and expertise even further, and is a fantastic opportunity for Kenyans to work in the UK,” British High Commissioner Jane Marriott said.

Among areas of interest in the new deal is improving treatment and prevention and management of cancer in Kenya.

“From Covid-19 vaccines and genomic sequencing to exchanges on cancer research and treatment to help Kenya treat more cancer patients at home, the UK has a long and proud history of support for Kenya’s health sector,” Marriot said.

The Kenya National Union of Nurses has since welcomed the deal, saying it will help create jobs for more than 30,000 unemployed nurses in the country.

Knun secretary general Seth Panyako said it will also diversify the skills of nurses who are currently in practice to gain experience in international standards of health practice. By Magdalena Saya, The Star

The UN's top court will rule in a bitter border dispute between Somalia and Kenya on Tuesday, delivering a verdict with potentially far-reaching consequences for bilateral ties and energy extraction in the region.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ), is to give its final word in a case filed by Mogadishu more than seven years ago.

A full bench of 15 judges led by US judge Joan Donoghue will hand down the verdict at the Peace Palace in The Hague at 1300 GMT. 

At stake are sovereignty, undersea riches and the future of relations between two countries in one of the world's most troubled regions.

Kenya has already lashed the ICJ as biased and announced it does not recognise the court's binding jurisdiction.

At the heart of the dispute is the direction that the joint maritime boundary should take from the point where the land frontiers meet on the coast.

Somalia insists the boundary should follow the orientation of its land border and thus head out in a line towards the southeast.

But Kenya says its boundary runs in a straight line east -- a delineation that would give it a big triangular slice of the sea.

Nairobi says it has exercised sovereignty over the area since 1979, when it proclaimed the limits of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) -- a maritime territory extending up to 200 nautical miles offshore where a state has the right to exploit resources.

The contested 100,000-square-kilometre (38,000-square-mile) area is believed to contain rich gas and oil deposits. 

Nairobi has already granted exploration permits to Italian energy giant ENI but Somalia is contesting the move. 

Established after World War II, the ICJ rules in disputes between UN member states. Its decisions are binding and cannot be appealed.

Map showing disputed zone and maritime borders claimed by Kenya and Somalia Photo: AFP / Laurence SAUBADU

Kenya unsuccessfully argued that the court did not have competence over the case, and in March did not attend hearings, citing difficulties arising from the coronavirus pandemic.

Just over two weeks ago, Nairobi notified the UN secretary-general that it was withdrawing its 1965 declaration accepting the ICJ's compulsory jurisdiction.

"The delivery of the judgement will be the culmination of a flawed judicial process that Kenya has had reservations with, and withdrawn from," the Kenyan foreign ministry said last week.

It accused the court of "obvious and inherent bias" in addressing the dispute.

"As a sovereign nation, Kenya shall no longer be subjected to an international court or tribunal without its express consent." 

Somalia and Kenya had agreed in 2009 to settle the squabble through bilateral negotiations.

Two meetings were held in 2014, but little progress was made. A third round that same year fell through when the Kenyan delegation failed to show up without informing their counterparts, later citing security concerns.

Somalia then took the matter to the ICJ in 2014, saying diplomatic attempts to resolve the row had led nowhere.

Monday's verdict may further sour diplomatic relations between the two countries after Kenya in 2019 recalled its ambassador in Mogadishu after accusing Somalia of selling off oil and gas blocks in the contested area.

Nairobi called the move an "unparalleled affront and illegal grab" at its resources.

It tartly reminded Somalia of Kenya's sacrifices in the battle against Al-Shabaab jihadists.

Kenya is a major contributor of troops to AMISOM, an African Union military operation fighting Al-Qaeda-linked fighters waging a violent insurgency across Somalia. By Jan HENNOP, International Business Times

Dr Kizza Besigye of the People’s Front for Transformation (PFT) and Mr Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, of ‘People Power Movement’. PHOTO | FILE

Former four-time presidential candidate Col (Rtd) Dr Kizza Besigye has asked National Unity Platform (NUP) leader Robert Kyagulanyi alias Bobi Wine to make a public statement to cease fire on the new People’s Front for Transformation (PFT).

“I called Kyagulanyi and he said he regrets the on-going attacks on this front. Some people have been asking me why he has not done that publicly and I don’t know why but I leave that to him,” Dr Besigye told journalists at their first address to the media yesterday.

The formation of Dr Besigye’s new pressure group which is composed of six political parties has birthed a verbal war with supporters of Bobi Wine’s NUP who indicate that PFT is out to fight against the leaders of opposition in Parliament.

At the peak of the 'war' on social media last week, Mr Patrick Oboi Amuriat, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party president, who is also one of the principals of PFT, tweeted indicating that they had no obligation to ask for permission from the leading opposition in Parliament before they form political groups.

“Leading opposition in Parliament does not have to lead any struggle against the dictator if they don’t wish, are not prepared or have no capacity to. Mandela (former South African President) led the struggle against the apartheid in South Africa from outside Parliament. FDC doesn’t need anybody’s permission to struggle,” Mr Amuriat tweeted on Sunday.

This is not the first time such an outburst is happening between Dr Besigye and Bobi Wine’s entities. In 2019 following the formation of Bobi Wine’s People Power pressure group, supporters of Dr Besigye were engaged in a verbal fight on social media with the group that they said had come to take their political space. 

One morning in March 2019, a group of “ghetto youth” donned in People Power T-shirts Dr Besigye as he exited a radio station in Mengo, in the city centre.

Bobi Wine then made a public statement and condemned the attack but was quick to blame the state for masterminding what he called “an attack aimed at spreading hate.”

The two principals consequently held a joint press conference dubbed united forces of change as a gesture to bring their supporters to order.  The bickering subsided momentarily.      

Dr Besigye yesterday pointed out that he was aware that there is a habit by the state to create fights on social media to derail the main aim of struggling to oust President Museveni.

Mr Joel Ssenyonyi, the NUP spokesperson declined to comment about the fights as a way of depriving the fight habit of media attention so that the focus can be turned on the main cause of forging a way of changing power in the country.

The two sides in the contest also accused each other of failing to turn up whenever the other needed one’s support on a political coalition.   

Dr Besigye said that they sat in meetings countless times asking them to join the formation which he said they turned down pending more consultation from all the other party leaders before they made a clear commitment.

“We called NUP and they told us they needed eight months to consult. When the months were done, we asked them again and they told us to go ahead with the formation because they were not yet ready,” he said.

In a rejoinder, Mr Ssenyonyi said, “There was a time we wrote to all political parties to come and we discuss a way forward after the elections. All the other parties responded apart from POA (Mr Amuriat).”

Four months after the Presidential elections this year, NUP wrote to FDC asking for a meeting with the leadership of the party, the meeting was cancelled at the last minute with the intended hosts indicating that they had an emergency that could not allow them to host Bobi Wine and his delegation.

But leaders within FDC said they had developed cold feet towards the meeting when they did not understand the agenda of the meeting. By Derrick Wandera. Daily Monitor

 

 
Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo

A new cancer treatment can wipe out tumours in terminally ill head and neck cancer patients, scientists have discovered.

In a landmark trial, a cocktail of immunotherapy medications harnessed patients’ immune systems to kill their own cancer cells and prompted “a positive trend in survival”, according to researchers at the Institute of Cancer Research (ICR), London, and the Royal Marsden NHS foundation trust.

One patient, who was expected to die four years ago, told the Guardian of the “amazing” moment nurses called him weeks after he joined the study to say his tumour had “completely disappeared”. The 77-year-old grandfather is now cancer-free and spent last week on a cruise with his wife.

Scientists found the combination of nivolumab and ipilimumab medications led to a reduction in the size of tumours in terminally ill head and neck cancer patients. In some, their cancer vanished altogether, with doctors stunned to find no detectable sign of disease.

Combining the two immunotherapy drugs could prove an effective new weapon against several forms of advanced cancer, experts believe. Results from other trials of the drug combination have previously suggested similar benefits for terminally ill kidney, skin and bowel cancer patients.

As well as boosting the long-term survival chances of patients, scientists said, the immunotherapy treatment also triggered far fewer side-effects compared with the often gruelling nature of “extreme” chemotherapy, which is the standard treatment offered to many patients with advanced cancer.

The results from the phase 3 trial, involving almost 1,000 dying head and neck cancer patients, were early and not statistically significant but were still “clinically meaningful”, the ICR said, with some patients living months or years longer and suffering fewer side effects.

“These are promising results,” Prof Kristian Helin, the ICR chief executive, told the Guardian. “Immunotherapies are kinder, smarter treatments that can bring significant benefits to patients.”

About 12,000 people in the UK are diagnosed with head and neck cancer every year and many will be diagnosed at advanced stages. There is an urgent need for better, kinder treatments for these patients that can keep them alive longer than the current standard of care.

When Barry Ambrose, 77, from Bury St Edmunds, was diagnosed with throat cancer in 2017, he was told that it had already spread to his lungs – and that hospital palliative care was his only option.

But in a turn of events that saved his life, Ambrose was offered the chance to join the new study. “When I was told about the trial … I didn’t hesitate to join – what did I have to lose? It turned out to be a lifeline.

“Although I had to make biweekly trips from Suffolk to the hospital for the treatment, I had virtually no side-effects and was able to carry on as normal doing the things I love: sailing, cycling, and spending time with my family.”

Within about eight weeks of starting the treatment, scans revealed the tumour in his throat had been eradicated.

“When the research nurses called to tell me that, after two months, the tumour in my throat had completely disappeared, it was an amazing moment,” said Ambrose. “While there was still disease in my lungs at that point, the effect was staggering.”

He later underwent chemotherapy, followed by surgery. He currently has no evidence of disease.

“The treatment I’ve received at the Royal Marsden has been second to none and I’m so fortunate they’ve continued to find treatment that works for me – they’re the gift that keeps on giving,” said Ambrose. Last week he enjoyed a cruise off the coast of the UK with his wife, Sue.

The results of the trial show the immunotherapy combination enjoyed a particularly high success rate in a group of patients whose tumours had high levels of an immune marker called PD-L1.

Survival rates in those with high levels of PD-L1 who received the immunotherapy cocktail were the highest ever reported in a firstline therapy trial of relapsed or metastatic head and neck cancer.

These patients lived an average of three months longer than those having chemotherapy. The median overall survival for these patients was 17.6 months, the highest average ever reported in this group of patients.

Researchers said they hoped future findings from the CheckMate 651 trial, funded by Bristol Myers Squibb, will show further benefits of the therapy in patients with advanced head and neck cancers.

“Despite the lack of statistical significance, these results are clinically meaningful,” said Prof Kevin Harrington, professor of biological cancer therapies at the ICR and consultant clinical oncologist at the Royal Marsden, who led the CheckMate 651 trial. “We will need to do longer follow-up to see whether we can demonstrate a survival benefit across all patients in the trial.”  By Andrew Gregory Health editor, The Guardian/Yahoo News

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