Withdrawal of the terminated Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) – to start on as yet unspecified date – will be by road.

This is a point from discussion of a revised withdrawal plan at a meeting last Friday (11 April) attended by chiefs of the three defence forces that contributed troops and equipment to the mission. They are generals Rudzani Maphwanya (SA National Defence Force), Jacob Mkunda (Tanzania People’s Defence Force- TPDF) and Paul Phiri (Malawi Defence Force). Also present at the Dar es Salaam headquarters of the TPDF for the meeting was Professor Kula Theletsane, Director of the SADC Organ on Politics, Defence and Security Affairs.

Initial deployment for the mission, under the acronym SAMIDRC, was in December 2023 to the eastern DRC under the command of South African Major General Monwabisi Dyakopu. Its termination, to be followed by a phased withdrawal, was made public by the regional bloc on 13 March. The announcement came two months after all three SAMIDRC troop contributing countries (TCCs) reported deaths in action against M23 (Mouvement du 23 Mars) with South Africa – 14 – bearing the brunt.

On 6 February, two weeks after the fatalities during combat around Sake and Goma in North Kivu province, Malawian President Lazarus Chakwera ordered his soldiers to start preparing for withdrawal from Goma and surrounds in the eastern DRC.

A one-page SAMIDRC communique date 11 April advised of a delay in the re-opening of Goma airport, stating it “could cause further delays” in the SAMIDRC withdrawal. It also noted withdrawal will be by road from Goma through Rwanda to the designated general assembly area of Chato in Tanzania, adding the SADC Secretariat will “engage” Rwanda to facilitate safe passage for SAMIDRC troops.

The three TCCs were tasked with “beefing up” the withdrawal planning element with operations, intelligence and logistics experts. They will be tasked to “conduct reconnaissance and develop instructions for withdrawal”.

The SADC planning elements will lead and direct the SAMIDRC Force Commander on formulating a withdrawal plan adhering to guidelines permitted by the TCCs.

The M23/Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) claims SAMIDRC forces are carrying out joint operations with DRC government forces (FARDC), Wazalendo militia and other elements around Goma which, according to a 12 April statement by the M23, “violate the existing SADC agreements and delay therefore the rehabilitation of Goma airport; compel the AFC/M23 to demand the immediate withdrawal of SAMIDRC forces; and constrain us to demand the immediate surrender of FARDC troops stationed within Monusco facilities to our organisation.”

“Despite our restraint in response to these persistent criminal acts, the AFC/M23 finds itself compelled to reconsider its position to prioritise the security of the Congolese population and that of the SAMIDRC elements present in the liberated areas,” the statement said.

Fighting has been taking place north of Goma since last Tuesday. It is believed that DRC government forces and Wazalendo militia forces that retreated into the Virunga national park are clashing with M23 rebels in the area. It is highly unlikely that SAMIDRC forces are involved.

“Why would SAMIDRC conduct ops now? They’ve got a deal with M23 and are withdrawing, once Goma Airport is opened. I suspect it’s just the FARDC and supporters on an offensive, putting SAMIDRC at risk,” defence expert Dean Wingrin stated.

“Demanding an immediate withdrawal of SAMIDRC troops means they cannot be airlifted out. Would they have to depart via Kigali? What about all the equipment? Plans for an orderly and phased SAMIDRC departure are rapidly falling apart,” he stated.

A withdrawal by land complicates things for the SAMIDRC troops, as a long logistic trail through Rwanda was not something they were wanting. It is slow, rough roads and reliant on Rwanda to agree to the plan, Wingrin pointed out.

“It also appears Rwanda/M23 have set up anti-aircraft systems to repel any potential air attack near Goma/Sake, scared of a SAMIDRC attack. Nothing is confirmed, apart from M23 making up an excuse to cancel the original withdrawal agreement.”

African Defence Review Director Darren Olivier said that he has not heard anything that would substantiate the M23’s claim of SAMIDRC involvement in fighting around Goma. “My sources say the SAMIDRC troops in Goma and Sake remain in their bases with only limited logistics traffic. M23 appears to be inventing a reason to renege on the agreement.”

“At a guess, I suspect that the ongoing FARDC counter-offensive toward Goma may have spooked M23 leadership enough that they’re looking to remove disarmed SAMIDRC troops from their bases. Either to remove a perceived risk or to put pressure on SADC to pressure Kinshasa. Whatever the reason, this just made a safe and orderly withdrawal of SAMIDRC a more tenuous and less likely outcome. I would hope that diplomacy and cooler heads prevail.”

Olivier added that the M23’s demand that Monusco hand over surrendered FARDC troops within their bases is unexpected given that they know Monusco can’t comply with it. “It might be setting the stage for future clashes of some sort with Monusco, but it’s not yet clear why they’d want to.”

“The situation is deteriorating rapidly with the renewed fighting and M23’s reneging on the earlier ceasefire and withdrawal agreement it signed with SADC. Odds of a good outcome for SAMIDRC are shrinking fast,” according to Olivier. DefenceWeb