Survey shows declining undecided vote as the 2027 presidential race begins to take shape

by EMMANUEL WANJALA

A new survey has identified Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Jubilee presidential candidate Fred Matiang'i as the most preferred opposition pair to challenge President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election.

The poll by Tifa Research tested several opposition combinations without indicating who among the candidates would serve as President or Deputy President.

Among opposition candidate supporters, the Kalonzo-Matiang’i ticket attracted the highest support at 31 per cent, slightly ahead of the Kalonzo and Edwin Sifuna pairing, which garnered 28 per cent support.

However, when views across all respondent categories are factored in, including supporters of Ruto and undecided voters, the Kalonzo-Sifuna ticket emerges as the most preferred overall with a 25 per cent approval rating, compared to 24 per cent for the Kalonzo-Matiang’i combination.

The two alliances also attracted nearly equal backing from Ruto supporters, with the Kalonzo-Sifuna pair receiving 19 per cent support against 18 per cent for Kalonzo-Matiang’i.

The survey further found that 40 per cent of Ruto supporters did not support any of the proposed opposition combinations, compared to only nine per cent among opposition candidate supporters who held the same position.

Another tested pairing between Rigathi Gachagua and Kalonzo secured 25 per cent support among opposition supporters and 19 per cent overall support.

Only four per cent of opposition supporters backed a Kalonzo alliance with Martha Karua.

The findings come as the survey shows the 2027 presidential race gradually becoming more defined despite what researchers describe as a fragmented opposition field.

According to the poll, Ruto currently holds the strongest individual position in the presidential contest with a 24 per cent approval rating. 

Kalonzo follows at 19 per cent, ahead of Matiang’i at 14 per cent, Sifuna at 10 per cent and Gachagua at nine per cent.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino ranked last among the tested candidates with two per cent support.

The poll also points to a steady decline in undecided voters, suggesting that voter preferences are gradually consolidating ahead of the 2027 election.

Undecided voters stood at 24 per cent in May 2025 before rising to 28 per cent in August 2025.

The figure later dropped sharply to 16 per cent in November 2025 and declined further to 15 per cent in May 2026.

Researchers say the trend increases the importance of coalition-building within the opposition as parties position themselves for the next presidential contest.

The survey was conducted between May 2 and May 11, 2026, through face-to-face household interviews carried out mainly in Swahili and English.

The nationally representative sample covered nine zones — Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.

A total of 2,013 respondents were interviewed, with the survey carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 per cent, with larger margins applying to sub-samples. The Star