Security expert Ibrahim Yanaya has told intelligence chiefs meeting in Diani, Kwale county that militant groups linked to Al Shabaab and similar movements are changing how they operate, with new pressure points that could affect countries across the region, including Kenya.

Yanaya was speaking at a gathering of intelligence leaders from 70 countries under the Mashariki Corporation conference.

He said the shift matters because extremist networks have continued to find ways to move faster than security forces, keeping defenders busy and reactive.

“In many cases, these groups decide when, where, and how to attack,” Yanaya said, explaining that this gives them an advantage.

He added that this often means security forces have to keep travelling and responding, sometimes after an incident has already begun.

His warning comes against the background of Al Shabaab’s continued influence beyond Somalia.

The group has been linked to attacks and plots that have affected Kenya and other countries in the region.

In Kenya, that impact has been felt through security operations and measures taken in response to incidents along major routes, as authorities work to prevent attacks on civilians and disrupt movement linked to extremist activity.

Across the wider region, Al Shabaab-linked violence has also been associated with attempts to destabilise communities and strain government resources.

Yanaya cautioned that the current threat is not only about isolated attacks. He said militant groups are making changes that can alter the conflict picture, including how they pressure states and communities.

He highlighted three ways the strategy is shifting. First, he said there is increased focus on urban and trading areas.

For many years, violence was often described as being concentrated in remote areas and far porous border zones in northern Kenya.

But Yanaya said militants are now paying more attention to towns, cities, bridges, and highways, where population density and movement can increase disruption and reach.

Second, he said militants are using economic pressure as part of their approach.

Instead of relying only on direct attacks, he said they can impose blockades and interfere with road corridors and local livelihoods.

According to Yanaya, this approach makes everyday life harder for communities and can weaken local stability, which militants can then exploit.

Third, Yanaya said militants are becoming more political. He told the chiefs that some groups are reaching out to political actors—especially opposition figures who may be outside the country—and trying to co-opt them into alliances.

While he stressed that governments still control most cities, he said the political dimension makes the security environment more complicated.

For Kenya, Yanaya said the concern is how these changes could play out along key corridors and in towns where security forces must balance multiple responsibilities.

He argued that the most serious scenario would be militants finding ways to target cities as key points of leverage.

He also said regional states cannot handle the threat alone, noting that cooperation is needed through mechanisms like the African Union, along with continued intelligence sharing and coordination with neighbours and international partners. The Star