BRIAN ORUTA, The Star

Opposition leader  Kizza Besigye on top of his vehicle as police tow it to Central Police Station  from Arua park in Kampala on May 24, 2022.  Photo-abubaker lubowa

By NANGAYI GUYSON

KAMPALA, Uganda –Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has given no relief to rising commodity prices, calling opposition calls for tax cuts "dangerous" and "suicidal," prompting Kizza Besigye, his political rival, to call for new protests.

Since May 12, Kizza Besigye, a four-time presidential contender, has renewed his mandate to call on Ugandans to pour on the streets and protest against rising commodity prices in Uganda prompting police to station outside his home to impose what they call preventive house arrest.

However, this has not stopped him from beating security at his home and ending up in downtown calling on Ugandans to wake up and protest Museveni’s four-decade regime which he says has made Ugandans poor.  

Besigye's detentions come after he called on Ugandans to "wake up" and oppose rising commodity prices, which the government blames primarily on the conflict in Ukraine, a major source of grain and edible oils.

When the war between Ukraine and Russia broke out in February this year, prices for basics commodities in Uganda went up so high with a bar of soap costing £2 and a Kilo of sugar £1.5  among others which the opposition in Uganda say the rising prices are unfair and unexplained.

Russian Ambassador to Uganda, Vladlen Semivolos, denied Uganda’s rising commodity prices to be connected to Russian and Ukraine war say the rising prices can only be due to negative effects of Covid-19 outbreak.

Besigye has been a vocal critic of longtime President Yoweri Museveni's regime. Following the 2011 presidential election, his "Walk to Work" protest movement, which was partly inspired by rising commodity prices, was ruthlessly put down within months.

Besigye's present detention has enraged his supporters, and activists and others are calling for the government to interfere, maybe by reducing levies on everything from cooking oil to gas. However, authorities are dismissing this possibility and advising citizens to tighten their belts.

In a recent address, Museveni, an authoritarian who has been in power since 1986, advised Ugandans to substitute cassava for bread, claiming that the widely produced root tuber is a healthier option. Many people scoffed at this.

"If you can, produce more. We should utilize these imported commodities sparingly or find alternatives," Museveni urged in a speech on Sunday.

Many Ugandans still admire Museveni, who was previously lauded as part of a new generation of African presidents and a longtime US security friend, for providing relative stability to this East African country. Critics claim Museveni is becoming increasingly reliant on the security forces to stay in power.

The United States and others have recently expressed concern about alleged torture by security officials who are also suspected of kidnapping opposition supporters.

Opposition leaders not ready to join Besigye on the streets

NUP Party

Alex Waiswa Mufumbiro, the NUP's Deputy Spokesperson, told the IEA exclusively that the party cannot join Besigye in his protests.

"We have other options to oust the dictator." We will not use Dr. Besigye's protests, but we wish him well," Mufumbiro stated.

However, while speaking to the press later, Dr. Kizza Besigye's protest against Uganda's high cost of living received backing from NUP leader Robert Kyagulanyi.

Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine, the president of the National Unity Platform (NUP), has expressed his solidarity with Dr. Kizza Besigye, the head of the People's Front for Transition (PFT).

"Standing in solidarity with you, Dr. Kizza Besigye, as you enter your fifth day of house arrest as a punishment for daring to demonstrate against the growing cost of living."

DP Party

Even though he and the Democratic Party support the cause, Democratic Party President Nobert Mao says he did not join Col. Kiiza Besigye in his protest against rising commodity prices. Mao reiterates that the Democratic Party supports constitutionally protected protests.

ANT Party

The Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) has admitted that their structures cannot support a protest for even one day. Ms. Alice Alaso, ANT's head of administration, stated that they are employing other modes of protest since they are unsure that their structures can sustain a protest for even one day.

"We're employing different kinds of protest because we're not sure if our structures can maintain a protest on the streets for even one day," Ms. Alaso explained.

Ugandan police detain opposition figures in their homes on a regular basis, claiming that they can use preventive arrest to protect public calm.

With the official campaign period about to start, focus now shifts to the Makueni Senate seat, which Governor Kivutha Kibwana will be contesting against a host of rivals.

It will be interesting to see how Prof Kibwana wards off stiff competition from a host of competitors among them Makueni MP Dan Maanzo, businessman Patrick Mbau, former committee executive member in the Kibwana's administration Robert Kisyula, and Victor Kioko, who will contest on Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) ticket.

Kibwana will vie on his Muungano party, Maanzo (Wiper), Mbau (Narc-Kenya) and Kisyula will fly the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ticket.

Local pundits say both Kibwana and Maanzo should brace for a tough contest, especially from Mbau who enjoys the support of the youth and women.

Mbau's fortunes have increased after Martha Karua was nominated as Raila Odinga's running mate in the Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Alliance.

"The voting pattern is likely to change. It has been like leadership is for the aged but now we will elect leaders who stand for development and will not consider kingpins and parties," said Mbau.

The businessman, who is viewed as a frontrunner, believes voting based on euphoria is exploitation of voters since those they elect just become cheerleaders of party leaders.

"Big names vying for presidency tend to camp at the grassroots to convince voters to elect those in their parties, and this way people are deprived of their democratic right and end up electing leaders who can’t work for them," said Mbau.

"We want to change this narrative, and that’s why I am campaigning as a person with ideologies for a change."

The Narc-Kenya candidate is challenging Kibwana to go for a bigger national seat to pave way for younger politicians.

"I want to remind our people that parties don’t make laws, drill water or bring any development, it is the development-conscious leaders we elect who perform those functions," he said.

But Kibwana said he will win the seat based on his development record as governor.

"The number three position in Azimio-to-be government is ours and we will not leave it go. We have declared to stay in that alliance," Prof Kibwana said. 

The areas the top contenders come from, their political past, party affiliation and the youth factor may dictate who wins in Makueni.

Maanzo, who is serving his second term, is from the drier countryside of Kanthuni, in the larger Makueni Constituency which has 91,227 registered voters.

Prof Kibwana is from Mwanyani, on the upper side of Kibwezi West Constituency which has 81,426 voters while Mbau comes from Kaiti constituency, which has the least number of registered voters at 58,303 according to data from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

As the race hots up, Kibwana has maintained a tight campaign schedule traversing the county in search of votes while commissioning projects ranging from water points, dispensaries and roads.

He has been wooing electorates to consider his candidature as 'critical' in protecting fruits of devolution.

"The Senate needs people who have the knowledge to make laws, approve Bills and ensure more resources go to the counties," Kibwana has been saying in his meet-the-people tours. - Stephen Nzioka, The Standard

An investigation into the events surrounding recent elections in Kenya provides a bleak outlook for this August’s general election. More details emerge on the souring of the relationship between Kenya and Idemia, the provider of biometric voting equipment and data holder for the Kenyan electorate, along with alleged incompetence on the part of the electoral commission.

Originally brought in to restore Kenyans’ faith in elections, biometrics could mire yet another election, according to the investigation.

Lighthouse Reports (‘Biometrics and the Enslavement of African Elections’), Africa Uncensored (‘Kenya’s 2022 Election: Is the Past a Prelude?’) and Le Monde (‘Inquiry into Failures of Electoral Biometrics in Kenya’) collaborated to investigate the details of the 2013 and 2017 elections, the latter being particularly fraught, as well as bringing the story to the present, three months out from the third biometric general election, already looking problematic.

In a nutshell, and as Biometric Update has reported over the years, ahead of the 2013 elections, the country’s first which involved biometrics, a tender was held which Idemia (then Safran Identity and Security) won. Idemia supplied equipment used to register more than 14 million Kenyans and despite a problematic election, Idemia “came out unscathed and holding the data of 14.3 million Kenyan voters” (Africa Uncensored) even though the election result was disputed by the Supreme Court.

In the run up to 2017, Kenya bought fresh equipment from Idemia (still Safran at this point), which still held the electorate’s data. This cost almost US$40 million. The system is intended to electronically transmit the results of each polling station to Nairobi. On polling day in 2017, the system failed, and opposition leader disputed the results. The Supreme Court annulled the election, which was rerun 60 days later.

The National Assembly recommended a ten-year ban on contracts with Idemia. The High Court overturned this and electoral commission announced it would once again use Idemia kit for 2022 and was paying Idemia for updates as of 2020.

Details have emerged as for as far back as 2013. The French Embassy in Nairobi used its influence to ensure Idemia was picked, despite being ranked second, alleges Africa Uncensored.

Suggesting something untoward within the electoral commission, “a member of the 2017 commission commented that commissioners were being ‘managed’ into selecting Safran as the vendor the IEBC [Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission] would procure directly from,” reports Africa Uncensored.

Idemia firmly rejects any allegations of wrongdoing.

New threats to a peaceful election

The path to the 2022 election has been fraught. The news that Idemia would once again supply equipment led to heavy criticism.

The new investigation shows how voter registration was successful, but the IEBC was then unable to port voter details onto the tablets or have full access to the 2017 register. The new supplier of the Kenyan Integrated Election Management System is Smartmatic (which lost the 2013 tender to Safran) and Idemia allegedly declined to cooperate, claiming the IEBC owed it money for accessing the data.

Idemia’s claim for payment from the IEBC is among others for the 2017 election. “IEBC CEO Marjan Hussein Marjan now says that the IEBC and Smartmatic now have full access to Kenya’s voter register and use of the Morpho Tablets, but says that out of Idemia’s full claim, only 86 million shillings (705,557 Euro) is payable [of the 139-million-shilling claim],” reports Africa Uncensored.

“The claim itself, and the fact that Idemia could, for a time, withhold Kenyan citizens’ data raises very serious questions about the IEBC’s contract with Idemia, a contract that has never been made public.”

The three reports detail allegations of mismanagement on the part of the electoral commission and the dangers of errors on any part leading to negative publicity, and triggering fake news in a tense setting ahead of the next election.

“As the global leader in Identity technologies, Idemia operates from over 180 countries and has a longstanding presence in Africa including Kenya,” a representative of Idemia told Biometric Update in an email responding to the reports.

“The facts on this case have been made public since 2017. No new facts have emerged since then. In 2020, The High Court decision confirmed IDEMIA has not violated any law in Kenya and its ability to continue its lawful operations in Kenya.

“Idemia and all its employees are proud to have been able to successfully fulfill their engagements to support Kenyan democracy, and humbly reaffirm today how positively it can consider the outcome of both 2017 elections, as it has been publicly stated by the International Community observers (UE, Carter Center, etc.). The Software Development Kit (SDK), firmware and drivers of the 45,000 KIEMS kits procured in 2017 are not part of the deliverables of the KIEMS contract. Nevertheless, even if the company did not wish to participate in the tenders related to the next general elections scheduled for 2022 and taking into account the tight deadlines the IEBC is facing, and lack of response from Smartmatic International B.V., Idemia delivered this SDK to the IEBC at no cost on March 31st 2022.”

Lighthouse Reports also carries this statement from the company: “All the internal and external audits – which are otherwise accessible – carried out on our services have confirmed that the company has fulfilled its obligations in accordance with its commitments.” - Frank Hersey, BiometricUpdate.com

The European Union and its partners reimbursed Kenya nearly Sh2.54 billion for troops fighting Al-Shabaab militia in Somalia in the nine months to March 2022, missing the target for the period by seven percent.

The Treasury data shows grants from the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) — whose mandate ended in March — missed its target of Sh2.73 billion by Sh191 million.

The quarterly disbursements were, however, Sh811 million, or 24.23 percent, lower than Sh3.35 billion which were reimbursed in a similar period in the prior financial year.

The United Nations Security Council at the end of March voted for a transitional African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia after it reconfigured the operations of Amisom which has been in the war-torn country for about 15 years.

Somalia finally conducted a presidential poll on May 15— after being delayed for more than a year— electing former leader Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to serve for four years. Mr Mohamud, who defeated the incumbent Mohamed Abudallahi Farmajo, had previously led Somalia between 2012 and 2017.

Under the Amisom, the EU funds largely catered for allowances for the about 20,000 Amisom troops and police, international and local civilian staff salaries and operational costs of their offices. 

The United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS), on the other hand, provided logistical field support to the Amisom troops and Somali National Security Forces during joint operations.

Kenya formally sent about 4,660 soldiers to Somalia in October 2011 after incessant attacks and kidnapping of civilians by Al-Shabaab militants within its territory, numbers which have since been gradually trimmed.

A year later, the UN Security Council gave Kenya the green light to join Amisom, a decision that meant the Treasury would not bear the full costs of the incursion.

Treasury Principal Secretary Julius Muia told lawmakers last July that the exchequer funds Kenya Defence Forces operations in Somalia, cash which the Defence ministry refunds once they are wired by the African Union.

The refunds are paid through the African Union Peace Facility to the Defence ministry.

Conservative estimates earlier showed the international community pays $1,028 (Sh119,248 under prevailing forex rates) for each soldier per month.

Their respective governments then deduct about $200 (Sh23,200) for administrative costs, meaning the soldiers take home about $800 (Sh92,800).

Kenya Defence Forces (KDF), in the book titled "War for Peace: Kenya’s Military in the African Mission in Somalia, 2011-2020"— published May 8, 2020 — suggests that reforming the Somali National Army to take charge of sustainable peace should be the first pillar of the exit plan. By CONSTANT MUNDA, Business Daily