On April 30, 2025, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its third production forecast for South Africa’s 2024-25 summer crop season. This report garnered significant attention due to recent excessive rainfall, which raised concerns about potential crop reductions. However, the CEC slightly increased the summer crop production estimate by 0.05% from March 2025, reaching 18.01 million tonnes. This modest uptick is significant, as many feared a downward revision due to weather conditions.

The overall harvest forecast is 16% higher than the 2023-24 season, which was impacted by drought, signaling a robust recovery for the agricultural sector. Notably, the maize harvest rose by 1% from the March 2025 estimate, totaling 14.66 million tonnes, with 7.75 million tonnes of white maize and 6.91 million tonnes of yellow maize. This represents a 14% year-on-year increase, driven by improved yields. This volume far exceeds South Africa’s annual maize requirements of approximately 11.8 million tonnes, ensuring the country remains a net maize exporter.

For oilseeds, the soybean harvest is projected at 2.3 million tonnes, down 25% from March 2025 due to concerns over yield damage from recent rains. Nevertheless, it is still 26% higher than the previous year, thanks to better yields compared to last year’s drought. The sunflower seed harvest is estimated at 742,800 tonnes, a 4% decrease from March but an 18% increase from the prior season. Other crops, including groundnuts (64,595 tonnes, +24% y/y), sorghum (137,970 tonnes, +41% y/y), and dry beans (70,540 tonnes, +40% y/y), also show significant year-on-year growth compared to the drought-affected 2023-24 season.

Improved weather prospects, including sunnier and drier conditions, will support harvesting efforts in the coming months. While excessive rainfall likely caused some quality losses in certain regions, this is not a major concern for consumers. The anticipated large harvest is driving down commodity prices, paving the way for stable food prices in the second half of 2025.

In the first quarter of 2025, grain-related product prices in the food inflation basket may still reflect the impact of earlier high prices and tight supplies. However, with the arrival of new season deliveries, the situation is expected to improve. Overall, the 2024-25 season promises to be a successful one for South African agriculture, bolstering the sector’s economic recovery.