ODM traces its roots back to the tumultuous post Moi-era. ODM came about as the successor of a hitherto grassroots movement formed to drive a “no” vote in the 2005 Kenyan constitutional referendum whose symbol was an orange. 

The orange was inspired by the successes of Ukraine's Orange Revolution (2004-2005). The revolution was a success courtesy of persistent peaceful mass protests against election fraud. The opposition Western allied candidate Viktor Yushchenko was the leader of the Orange Movement. The protests eventually led to a re-run of the Ukrainian presidential election, which the opposition won.  

During the 2005 referendum, the pro-government drive to vote “yes” during the plebiscite was fronted by the Kibaki-led government, which lost decisively during the vote; the desire for a new constitution went back to the drawing board. 

When the dust settled and everyone’s sight was set on the upcoming volatile general elections of 2007, there were too many interests playing out as political heavyweights jostled for space and position.

Unable to hold together, the onetime single ODM party broke into two in early 2007. One maintained the name “Orange Democratic Movement Party of Kenya” (simply known as ODM), and while the splinter group coined a similar name, the “Orange Democratic Movement–Kenya” (known as ODM–Kenya). 

In the years following this split, the ODM-K morphed and changed name under Kalonzo Musyoka as ODM maintained its name and trajectory, the pre-eminent opposition party in Kenya’s politics, while all the while led by the now late, Raila Odinga.

No other party has stood the test of time as the late Raila Odinga-led Orange Democratic Party (ODM).  

Raila's demise leaves a vacuum in ODM

The death of founding ODM leader Raila Odinga in October 2025 left a vacuum in the longstanding opposition party. The once monolithic political party started disintegrating at the top. 

Chinua Achebe’s novel “A Man of the People” poses an African proverb that would be true of the scenario in ODM today: “When the alligator tells you the crocodile is sick, please believe it." 

Despite putting up brave faces and denying rifts in the “Baba’s party” as many would fondly refer to it, the spectacles are all out there; it is not well within the ODM party. But how did the formally cozy, articulate and cohesive party end here?

Lack of succession structure

Odinga’s sudden demise in October 2025 caused a sharp and immediate conflict in the party owing to the fact that a good number of the party members had been uncomfortable with the Ruto-Raila pact that birthed the broad-based government. 

The only person who managed internal criticism and kept everyone second-guessing his next move was the opposition leader himself, fondly referred to as “Baba”. 

The “Enigma” did not know that he had a date with mortality coming up faster than he could conjure up his next move.  

With his demise, ODM’s internal cracks burst out through outright criticism and disagreement within the party. To add to the unveiling debacle, non-ODM members within the political arena have also taken sides in the biggest contestation within it. 

Some members, especially the youthful leaders, who are never comfortable working with the government, are making their stand known publicly. Other members, already within the Kenya Kwanza-led government, as top government officials, have taken the opposite side and are falling over themselves trying to sell the agenda of remaining within the broad-based government. 

The heated debates have been about the merits and demerits of staying within the Ruto-led government. This has seen ODM’s foot soldiers divided right down the middle, unhinged and at a loss on the way forward.

ODM’s current problem is a master class on what happens when no clear designated successor is in place by the time the mantle is to be handed over.  

For someone of the stature of Raila to have failed to designate a probable successor also gives insight into the heat that had been simmering for some time within the party, unnoticed. 

Currently, Raila’s older brother and Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga is the acting party leader, but he is obviously lacking in clout and charisma to captain the ODM ship to calmer seas.

An Odinga family affair 

To compound matters for the ODM party, the Jaramogi family seems to be coming up against each other if the utterances of Winnie Odinga, daughter to Raila Odinga is anything to go by. 

Winnie Odinga, who is also an East Africa Legislative Assembly (EALA) Member of Parliament and her brother Raila Junior took on perceived enemies of the ODM party while speaking at a rally they convened at Kamkunji grounds on January 18, 2026. 

Winnie, a niece of incumbent party leader Oburu, confessed that her dad’s death had left the party rudderless, with rival politicians scrambling to steer the party in divergent directions yet they had not consulted ODM members, hence causing confusion. She was categorical that Raila’s way in the party had been consistent, consultation with its members before issuing a resolution. 

This was a loose allusion to the ODM old brigade, who have been insisting they will seek to make a pre-election pact with the Kenya Kwanza Coalition Party to remain in the broad-based government. Winnie said she, alongside other youthful leaders, will not be intimidated by those who are in a hurry to take the party in a different direction. 

Subsequently, a section of ODM youth leaders, led by Brian Midiwo, have urged for the inclusion of Winnie Odinga in ODM’s leadership, saying they want Winnie to be appointed to the party roundtable where decisions are being made. 

The ODM youth caucus also dismissed calls by certain party stalwarts to expel leaders with different opinions from those supporting the broad-based government. They said ODM had been democratic under the late Raila, and this space should not be taken away by leaders who are after their selfish interests.

Winnie gets ‘Wingman’ in Ruth 

Kisumu Woman Representative in parliament, Ruth Odinga, at an interview on Citizen TV recently, echoed what her niece, Winnie Odinga, had said earlier. 

She warned certain sections of the ODM leadership against rushing into a pre-election pact with President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza alliance, warning it might be detrimental the party on several fronts.

Ruth, who doubles up as ODM’s deputy Organizing Secretary, emerged as Winnie’s ‘wingman’, cautioning the ODM leadership to do first things first. Strengthen the party in its internal structures and ensure the full implementation of the 10-point agenda contained in the cooperation agreement signed by Odinga and President William Ruto, which is yet to be implemented by the Kenya Kwanza government. After that, they might engage the Kenya Kwanza coalition on other matters arising. 

She, however, deflected any perceived fissures in the Jaramogi family, saying, “What has been interpreted as a ‘rift’ in the family is simply the democratic space we have enjoyed over the years. We may not always agree; we will always express our differing views.” 

Ruth reiterated that the family supports Oburu, as he was a confidant and advisor to the late Raila. 

Party at crossroads

The core cause of the big clash in ODM is between those who are driving the narrative that “Raila left us in the broad-based government and this is where we will be even post 2027”, and those who are saying this collaboration was limited in its scope and can certainly not last beyond 2027. They are of the opinion that ODM will chart its way forward based on its interests first, as a party. 

Those clamoring for the status quo to persist include Oburu, who specifically says ODM should maintain Raila’s alignment with the current government. Oburu has been insistent that cooperation between ODM and the government will give ODM greater leverage and continuity during the general elections in 2027. 

However, the critics of the broad-based government within the ODM party, including a good number of younger leaders, oppose this direction and want ODM to reassert an independent opposition identity. 

Rifts and parallel grassroots activities

Kakamega County was treated to a rare melodrama recently when two factions of the ODM party decided to hold two different meetings and invite the national chairman, Oburu. Caught in the cross-hairs of these two groups, one fronted by Wycliffe Oparanya, who serves in Ruto’s cabinet and Ferdinand Barasa, who is the governor of Kakamega, Oburu nonetheless had to attend both meetings to the dismay of many observing the unfolding drama. 

Several times a number of internal organs have called meetings, which have either been undermined when leaders skip them or attend parallel meetings convened elsewhere.  

Communication is no longer coherent and aligned with party interests. 

Week after week, many leaders publicly vow unity, but it remains hollow talk as some party officials are perceived as selfish and opportunistic. 

What’s rocking the ODM boat? 

Raila’s mien, character and shadow left nothing to chance in ODM when he strode like a colossus during his life in politics, which was a span of over four decades. ODM at only twenty years seems like it has been around for the entire duration of Raila’s span in politics from 1982 to 2025, some forty-three years if not more. 

Since ODM’s inception in 2005, Raila was ODM and ODM was Raila; the two entities fed off each other and were inseparable. In such circumstances, the current leadership vacuum is bound to throw the party into confusion and an identity crisis like never seen before. 

ODM is in the throes of an identity crisis like a ruddy desirable youth who has ceased to live under his parents’ roof and now must chart his own path in life. Will the snares on the way to success make him stumble and fall, or will he hold onto the straight and narrow, leaning on the valuable lessons he gleaned from his parents as he grew up to succeed? 

Many critics view political parties in Kenya as being not so much ideological vehicles to mobilize citizens to a good common cause but rather, briefcase entities built around personalities who demand cultish adherence or else!   

The ODM fallout is mainly between two factions. The Pro-broad-based government faction fronted by Oburu Oginga, Ali Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya, Gladys Wanga, and Opiyo Wandayi, among others, which is coming up against a youthful brigade, among whom are Babu Owino, Edwin Sifuna, and Winnie Odinga, and others.  

The Pro-broad-based government faction believes ODM should remain engaged with President Ruto’s administration and even sign a pre-election pact with the Kenya Kwanza coalition. The youthful Opposition faction believes ODM must structurally break from the government and prepare for an independent 2027 campaign. This cohort fancies fielding ODM candidates country-wide, and if possible, a presidential candidate.

Many senior ODM leaders are also in the race for different political positions come 2027 general elections; inevitably, this heightens competition and calls for alignment and re-alignment to stay relevant and achieve their set goals. This factor drives where they stand today in relation to ODM’s future.

The skirmishes in ODM today carry all the signs of an inter-generational competition. Intergenerational competition causes tension, conflict, or struggle for resources, jobs, and power between different age cohorts. This occurs when older generations hold onto power, hence limiting opportunities for younger people. This is evident when younger leaders and older establishment figures disagree over ODM’s identity, values, and direction. 

End-game scenarios

In the event a negotiated settlement emerges, and this remains the best success route yet, an early ODM National Delegates Conference (NDC) could be convened, the party could coalesce around a unity leader and formulate a widely acceptable, coherent strategy for 2027. 

This requires buy-in from the competing factions within the party today. This must involve genuine dialogue to bridge the government vs opposition strategic divide. 

If this happens, ODM, Kenya’s largest political party, will live to pursue better governance and democracy for more years to come. But if compromise is enforced without reconciling genuine grievances, this will dilute long-term ideological clarity for the party.  

A second scenario could see the ODM party split right down the middle into at least two blocs. This would probably be a government-aligned wing and a reconstituted independent opposition wing.

History is harsh; it shows patterns that are not pleasant, and one of them is that often, political parties struggle to reunite after the loss of a dominant founder. 

Some analysts compare this to what happened with FORD after Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s death. Each faction gets a new set of identities and its own clear direction. It also sets out its core values and campaigns on its own terms with its own manifesto. However, this would mean the end of ODM’s electoral strength in the next general election and beyond.

If the youth and important constituencies within ODM are ignored, the party will lose its priceless grassroots confidence, members would most probably leave the party for other formations, and ODM will be a pale shadow of its Raila-led days. 

On another plane, those who remain will do so under a clearer political national alignment; on the other hand, the ODM brand will diminish considerably. 

A timely, inclusive and thorough NDC could legitimize leadership and reduce infighting within the party. This, in turn, would result in achieving authentic and powerful leadership, which would reduce infighting. At the very root of this ODM crisis are members feeling unheard and unappreciated; to ignore this split could hasten the splintering and final fallout. ODM should put their desired strategic moves on the weighing scale, like a company undertaking their strategic planning process. 

Will an alliance with the UDA going into the 2027 general elections be a tactical move that will align with ODM’s core values and principles? Might such a move alienate a core block of their grassroots support? Tough questions for the ODM to tackle…

The party should propose to respect Raila Odinga’s legacy, seek genuine unity and a shared vision for 2027, rather than getting sucked into personal rivalries and tactical disputes. The missing succession roadmap in ODM has sparked a leadership and identity struggle that the remaining Odingas would do is to choose posterity and prudence over short-term or niche gains. 

The Odinga family should be the first to rally all members around shared goals and ensure the integrity of the party. The current leadership of ODM should prudently and objectively handle this widening split; it will make or break the party. Will they be the first party to taunt history? Rewrite it? Time will tell. Citizen Digital