The siege has forced thousands of civilians to flee through RSF and SPLM-N checkpoints and roadblocks in hopes of reaching more secure towns. [Getty]

Despite the arrival of SAF reinforcements in Dilling, analysts warn that both sides remain locked in a stalemate, with neither interested in a ceasefire.

Earlier this week, on 26 January, fighters aligned with Sudan's army entered the strategic town of Dilling in South Kordofan, a region in the country's south.  

Verified online videos indicate that residents welcomed the army, known as the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), apparently because they were living under the looming threat of an invasion by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). 

Over the last two years, the RSF and its ally, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), have imposed a tight siege on Dilling, driving up food prices and generating mass hunger and collapsing health services. 

The siege has forced thousands of civilians to flee through RSF and SPLM-N checkpoints and roadblocks in hopes of reaching more secure towns. 

"We finally left at the start of the year due to [the RSF's] constant indiscriminate shelling on the city," said Ragoba, a resident of Dilling who asked The New Arab not to disclose her last name due to the tense security environment. 

The 29-year-old said she fled with her brother, three sisters and parents and that they travelled for 20 days until reaching a safer city under the army’s control in the north. 

"We were so afraid that we would face violations [while passing through the checkpoints to escape], but luckily the RSF let us pass," Ragoba added. 

Siege lifted? 

Since Sudan erupted into civil war in April 2023, SAF and the RSF have committed a myriad of human rights violations, including summary executions and torture. 

The latter has also subjected women to systematic sexual violence and carried out genocidal killings in the sprawling region of Darfur, pushing many communities to view the army as their only form of protection. 

Despite the arrival of SAF reinforcements in Dilling, analysts warn that both sides remain locked in a stalemate, with neither interested in reaching a ceasefire.

Civilians and analysts also fear that fighting will intensify across the region in the coming weeks and that the RSF could still storm Dilling to commit atrocities against perceived army supporters. 

"We were always afraid of the RSF coming inside Dilling and killing so many of us, just as they did in El-Fasher," said Rogoba, referencing videos from the capital of North Darfur, in which RSF fighters filmed their slaughter of thousands of civilians in October 2025. 

According to Sudan War Monitor, an outlet that relies on open-source material to monitor the conflict, SAF-aligned fighters entered Dilling by traversing several back roads and avoiding the main highway. 

The highway connects Dilling to el-Obeid—the strategic capital of North Kordofan that remains under SAF control—and remains blocked by RSF fighters. 

Sudan War Monitor added that SAF reinforcements brought food and weapons to their besieged troops, but no aid for civilians. 

Hafiz Mohamed, the Director of Justice Africa, a local monitor, said it's unclear whether SAF has established a reliable supply line into Dilling to break the siege.  

"The reinforcement of SAF troops could postpone an RSF attack, but the issue remains whether there is a supply line or not," he said. 

A new front? 

The RSF and SPLM-N have reportedly launched attacks on army positions in Blue Nile state, which borders South Sudan and Ethiopia. 

Army officials have accused Ethiopia of hosting a training camp for the RSF-SPLM-N in the sprawling Benishangul-Gumuz region. This lawless area includes the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). 

If true, the development could gradually draw Ethiopia directly into Sudan's civil war, warn commentators and analysts.

But there were no apparent signs that SPLM-N and RSF fighters were training in camps in Ethiopia, according to Nathaniel Raymond, the Executive Director of the Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale University.

"There are no visual indicators," he told TNA, based on satellite imagery to track developments in Sudan's war. 

A training camp can be difficult to spot if it looks like a few huts or a civilian structure from the air.  What's clear is that both the RSF and Ethiopia receive significant diplomatic and military support from the United Arab Emirates, a claim the UAE denies despite overwhelming evidence cited by UN experts, Amnesty International, and US officials. 

The UAE is thus suspected of using its leverage over Ethiopia, which is facing several internal conflicts, to secure a new supply route for the RSF and SPLM-N and greater operational mobility. 

"The UAE could also exploit the lawlessness in the Benishangul region to establish a new supply line for the RSF, if it hasn't already," said Hager Ali, an expert tracking weapons shipments into Sudan as part of her research at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies. 

"Ethiopia is not completely in control of its borders or [in regions where there is] active conflict, which the UAE can take advantage of," she told TNA. 

SAF's entry into Dilling hasn't turned the tide of the war in its favour, say analysts. 

Since taking over El-Fasher in October, the RSF has made further progress on the battlefield by capturing the entirety of West Kordofan state, an oil-rich area. 

More recently, the RSF and SAF have fought over several towns in North Kordofan and South Kordofan, with neither side able to maintain control for more than a few days. 

Dilling could follow the same trend, said Suliman Baldo, the founder of the Sudan Policy Tracker think-tank. 

Just two days after SAF reinforcements entered the town, the RSF fired a barrage of drones into the town, targeting a garrison and the central market and killing scores of civilians. 

"Nothing has changed [on the battlefield], and I wouldn't be surprised if the RSF puts up more roadblocks around Dilling," Baldo told TNA. 

Still, Baldo acknowledged SAF's momentum on the battlefield, attributing it to the significant logistical and technical support it is receiving from both Turkey and Egypt. 

Over the last three months, both countries have teamed up to help SAF spot RSF targets and formations and to collect and share intelligence. 

Turkey and Egypt both view the SAF as the only legitimate institution in the country and have supplied it with military and diplomatic support. 

The former has sold SAF its advanced Bayraktar TB2 drones, which have turned the tide in conflicts in Ethiopia and Libya. At the same time, the latter has carried out unannounced strikes on RSF positions across the conflict. 

Baldo believes the war and humanitarian crisis will continue to worsen as regional support for both the SAF and the RSF mounts. 

"Regional countries have long settled their rivalries on the backs of other countries, and now it's Sudan's turn," he told TNA. "But the fact remains that neither [SAF nor RSF] can win this war outright by inflicting total defeat and surrender on the other." The New Arab