By allowing an opponent to stand, the government may be looking to reduce international criticism 

Tanzania’s presidential election is set to become slightly more competitive after the High Court ordered that Luhaga Mpina of the ACT Wazalendo party should be allowed to submit nomination forms to the Independent National Electoral Commission.

The commission had effectively banned Mpina from standing by suspending his candidacy on a technicality. Delivering the judgement in Dodoma, a judge declared the suspension unconstitutional. But allowing Mpina to run for the October polls is only a minor concession.

With Tundu Lissu, the leader of the main opposition party Chadema, still in prison facing treason charges, and Chadema banned from standing candidates, few doubt that President Samia Suluhu Hassan will be re-elected with a landslide and that her ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) will win almost all the parliamentary seats (AC Vol 66 No 11, President Hassan turns bulldozer). ACT Wazalendo won four of the 393 seats in the Tanzanian parliament in 2020 and though former leader Zitto Kabwe, the party’s best-known face, hopes to return to parliament for a seat in Kingoma, an eastern city, it is hard to see ACT taking even 10% in the presidential poll.

Samia’s government has so far escaped major international censure for a concerted campaign of repression that saw CCM win 99% of municipal council seats last year after a ban on most opposition candidates, as well as the jailing of Lissu and a series of violent attacks on Chadema and ACT officials. (Dispatches, 22/10/24, Opposition cries foul over latest brutal attack and poll rigging).

But the bans on the main two opposition leaders and public apathy about Samia’s record have prompted fears in ruling party circles of a low turnout that could reduce her legitimacy. Allowing a semblance of competitiveness in the polls should, CCM officials calculate, be enough to again avoid significant international criticism. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025