Kenya's economy teeters on the brink of a currency crisis, with the shilling facing the potential to plummet to a historic low of Ksh170 against the US dollar within the next 19 days.

Former Public Service Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria has sounded the alarm, stressing the urgency of a capital injection from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to prevent this catastrophe.  

This revelation comes after the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Governor Kamau Thugge revealed that the country is expecting upwards of Ksh181 billion disbursement from IMF.

Speaking during an evening broadcast on Citizen TV, Kuria painted a grim picture of the nation's financial health. He emphasised Kenya's heavy reliance on international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank, especially in the wake of the recent public backlash against the controversial Finance Bill 2024.

The former CS pointed to the diplomatic manoeuvring required by President William Ruto to maintain Kenya's standing with these global lenders. 

Kuria's remarks came with a stark warning: if the IMF fails to disburse the expected funds by the end of the month, the shilling's value could spiral out of control, reaching an unprecedented exchange rate of Ksh170 to the dollar. 

"The president must invoke his political capital on the global stage, something he has been doing well," Kuria stated, stressing the delicate balance the government must maintain in its dealings with international financial players.

The spotlight is now on John Mbadi, the newly appointed Cabinet Secretary for Treasury, who Kuria identifies as a key figure in navigating this financial storm. According to Kuria, Mbadi's first major test will be to ensure the IMF remains engaged with Kenya. Failure to secure the anticipated $1.4 billion (about KSh 181.3 billion) from the IMF could lead to dire consequences for the nation's currency.

Kuria did not mince words about the gravity of the situation. "If IMF doesn't come through by the end of this month, in another 19 days, this shilling might hit Ksh170," he warned, adding that he would be praying for Mbadi's success in keeping the IMF on board.

He further advised Mbadi to meticulously manage the upcoming financial challenges, particularly the maturing loans that will need to be addressed in the near future. 

Kenya is expecting a total of KSh 181.3 billion in disbursements from the IMF this financial year, according to Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Governor Dr Kamau Thugge. These funds are crucial as the country grapples with the economic fallout from recent protests and the rejection of the Finance Bill. The IMF's support is seen as a lifeline for stabilising the shilling and preventing further economic deterioration.

Governor Thugge highlighted that Kenya is also expecting an additional $600 million (about KSh 77.7 billion) from the IMF following a recent review. "We still have roughly $1.4 billion of disbursements from the IMF between now and the end of the financial year," Thugge said during a press briefing, expressing hope that a board meeting would be convened soon to expedite the release of these funds.By SimonMwanaWaNjuguna, Kenyans.co.ke