In a world replete with democratic institutions, the African continent remains a peculiar exception. Africa houses nearly half of the world’s authoritarian regimes, and freedom indicators on the continent have been plummeting for years. Yet even in those countries where the banner of democracy is flown high, it is too often hoisted by coercive means. There exist many ‘counterfeit democracies,’ where authoritarian governments employ illicit means to maintain power, all while maintaining the illusion of the democratic process.

Uganda, Africa’s ninth most populous nation, stands as a telling example. As incumbent president Museveni prepares to contest for his seventh consecutive term, his record of corruption, political violence, and election tampering loom heavy over the nation’s election. The 2026 polls, which could usher in a fifth decade of Museveni rule, marks a critical juncture for Ugandan democracy. Whether Museveni will continue to consolidate power, or citizens will finally be granted a fair electoral process, remains to be seen.

Uganda’s Democratic Growing Pains

From its outset, Uganda’s democratic undertaking has been difficult. The country’s first parliamentary elections in 1959 were extensively boycotted, with a mere 10% of the population casting ballots. Just over a decade later, dictator Idi Amin seized power through a coup, ousting a coalition government and dismantling the nation’s nascent democratic systems. Under the guise of purging economic traitors, the draconian government brought about economic collapse, severe political repression, and hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Although Idi Amin’s government is now a thing of the past, parts of its authoritarian ethos found a modern purveyor: President Yoweri Museveni. Museveni first assumed power in 1986 through a long-fought military insurgency, purportedly wanting to end the cycle of coups and instability that had plagued the nation. He declared that his victory was “not a mere change of guard,” but a “fundamental change,” promising democracy, equality and an end to tribalism.

For the first decade, Museveni seemed to make good on these promises. His Ten-Point Programme, which insisted on “democracy at all levels of government,” saw the establishment of local electoral processes and the rapid decentralization of federal governance. In 1996, Uganda held its first official presidential election, and unsurprisingly, Museveni won the vote.

Since Museveni’s first term three decades ago, much has changed. When Museveni exhausted the country’s two-term limit in 2005, members of the parliament were given one-off payments of USh 5 million (approximately USD 2,700 at the time) to “consult” on a bill that removed term limits from the nation’s constitution. Never before had Ugandan MP’s been given payments to deliberate on bills, and the process spawned widespread concerns about coercion.

Thousands took to the streets, but to no avail. Political pressure to pass this bill was too great, and the Democracy Monitoring Group reported that “those who have come out before to oppose the proposal [were] eliminated from whatever positions they had.” This questionable routine occurred once again in 2017. Parliament members were again given a one-off payment, this time of Shs 29 million (approximately USD 8,000), to consult on a bill that would remove the country’s 75-year age limit on presidential candidates. The removal of this law cleared the way for Museveni to run for his sixth term at 77 years old, and once again produced public outrage with thousands taking to the streets.

The above bills passed, but they did so at the cost of de-legitimizing the legislative process, as de-facto bribes entrenched a culture of patronage and corruption at the highest order of government, setting a precedent of misconduct that diffused through state institutions.

Museveni has also employed violence to lengthen his rule. In 2021, Museveni’s reelection hopes were threatened by MP and former pop star Bobi Wine, who ran a fervent campaign predicated on socially conscious rhetoric and vocal critique of the incumbent administration. As Wine gained widespread support, the government responded to his campaign with violence and vitriol.

Government security entities repeatedly disrupted his rallies with tear gas and live ammunition, and his supporters were arrested en masse. In November 2020, after Wine was dubiously detained, mass protests erupted across Kampala and other urban centers. Museveni’s security forces killed nearly50 people in just two days, and 800 were arrested on charges of public unrest. Later that year, Wine’s personal security guard was reportedly run over by a police truck whilst attending to a wounded journalist.

The 2026 Election: Past Is Precedent?

Ahead of the 2026 election, Wine has again emerged as Museveni’s chief challenger, and the pattern of violent intimidation has resurfaced. In September 2024, Wine’s vehicle was attacked by police forces. He released a statement on X, stating “the police and military … surrounded our vehicles and started firing live bullets, teargas canisters and other projectiles.” During the altercation, Wine was struck by a tear gas canister fired by police, from which he had to undergo surgery to dislodge fragments from his leg. Wine’s party headquarters has also been raided; he himself has been arrested and beaten multiple times, and claims of supporters being abducted and tortured have surfaced. In September 2025, even his formal nomination was marred by clashes between police and celebrants.

The Ugandan government, which maintains a blanket denial of any involvement in these incidents, has refused to investigate documented reports of abuses. Elections are compromised in an environment where opposition candidates are attacked, supporters are beaten, and security forces operate with impunity. Democracy depends not only on the formal conduct of elections, but also on the protection of fundamental rights, civic freedoms, and an even playing field for all political participants – none of which are consistently upheld by the Ugandan incumbency.

Empirical studies of democratization highlight that once term limits are removed and coercive state apparatuses are normalized in electoral politics, prospects for democratic consolidation decline sharply. As of now, this seems to be the case for Uganda. The erosion of democracy is evident through the criminalization of opposition and co-option of the legislature, and this assault on freedoms shows no signs of slowing.

As Uganda heads into a turbulent election season, it arrives at a critical juncture. Legislative inducements and political violence have diluted the democratic process and set a dangerous precedent of power consolidation. The 2026 election will be a fulcrum for Uganda’s future, determining whether Uganda can reclaim the path of democratic reform or sink deeper into its authoritarian proclivities. President Museveni has shown no signs of abatement, but opposition to his overreach grows every day – setting up an election cycle that is as contentious as it is pivotal.

• The views expressed in this article belong to the author(s) alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com, where this article was published.