According to the UN Kenya Annual Results Report 2025, the Nairobi office will this year deliver against a backdrop of reduced resources, political transition dynamics leading up to the elections in 2027 and heightened climate crisis events and humanitarian pressures.

“Humanitarian pressures will regrettably remain a defining feature. In a context with protracted drought, climate shocks and a large refugee and asylum-seeker populations, UN Kenya will continue to protect the humanitarian space while also advancing longer-term solutions, including through refugee inclusion.

“Strengthening linkages between humanitarian action, development programming and peacebuilding will remain a priority,” the report says.

Kenya is currently hosting close to 850,000 refugees and asylum seekers, with new arrivals continuing to push numbers upward even as global humanitarian financing tightens.

More than half of these refugees are concentrated in Kakuma and Dadaab camps, where services are already under pressure.

In some cases, food rationing has been affected due to funding shortfalls.

The UN acknowledges that 2025 demonstrated resilience in programme delivery but also confirmed that demand is rising faster than the money to meet it.

That pressure is further compounded by renewed instability across the Horn of Africa.

In neighbouring South Sudan, escalating political tensions and violence are raising fears of a relapse into full-scale conflict, threatening to trigger fresh displacement.

Already, about 25,000 new arrivals from South Sudan were recorded in Kenya in 2025, driven by an escalation in fighting, particularly after February.

South Sudanese refugees now make up roughly a quarter of Kenya’s refugee population, second only to Somalis, reflecting the persistent fragility of the region.

This influx is part of a broader regional displacement pattern, with hundreds of thousands forced to flee across borders in East Africa as conflicts and climate shocks intersect.

Regional diplomatic interventions by Nairobi have already sought to contain the crisis, underscoring Kenya’s frontline exposure to instability.

The report further notes that refugee-hosting areas, especially Turkana and Garissa counties, are under increasing strain, not just from population pressure but from overlapping crises, including drought, food insecurity and limited infrastructure.

The UN warns that humanitarian pressures will remain a “defining feature” of its work in Kenya, driven by recurrent climate shocks, protracted drought conditions and sustained displacement from neighbouring countries.

But as the needs grow, the financial outlook is worsening. Global donor fatigue, shifting geopolitical priorities and competing crises from Ukraine to the Middle East are constraining available funding. The result is already being felt in Kenya’s camps, where food aid reductions have triggered protests and heightened tensions among refugees.

The Building Evidence to Enhance the Welfare of Refugees and Host Communities in Kenya report says this is happening at a time when the number of refugees entering the country is rapidly rising.

The report, co-produced with UNHCR and Centre for Effective Global Action, says Kenya’s refugee population increased significantly from 555,183 in May 2022 to 835,793 by December 2025. This surge is effectively placing immense pressure on humanitarian systems and host communities. The study noted a growing mismatch between rising needs and declining resources, with aid agencies struggling to maintain basic support for refugees

Former UN Resident Coordinator Stephen Jackson indicated in the report foreword that the UN’s immediate priority is to “consolidate gains” while preparing a new cooperation framework with the Kenyan government.

Yet consolidation under constraint is proving increasingly difficult.

In response, the UN is doubling down on efficiency, shifting toward joint programming, pooled funding and system-wide coordination to stretch limited resources further.

This model aims to reduce duplication and deliver greater impact at scale, particularly in high-pressure sectors, such as food security, health and protection.

At the same time, a major policy shift through the Shirika plan is under implementation.

Through the initiative, refugees are being integrated into national systems, including social protection frameworks.

The move covering camps like Kakuma and Dadaab marks a transition from parallel humanitarian aid structures to a development-led approach focused on inclusion and self-reliance.

While this shift is seen as more sustainable, it also places additional strain on national systems that are already under pressure from economic challenges and climate impacts.

The European Union has also warned that the worsening situation in the region risks sabotaging the Shirika Plan.

In November, EU Ambassador Henriette Geiger warned that unless South Sudan is stabilised, its unravelling would “quickly destabilise the whole region”, triggering fresh refugee flows into Kenya.

She cautioned that any further escalation would overwhelm the country’s systems and undermine years of integration efforts.

“The stability of South Sudan is vital for Kenya’s stability. One example is the Shirika Plan. We’re talking about integrating the more than 800,000 refugees into their host communities,” Amb Geiger said. 

“Now imagine South Sudan blows up. There will be millions of new refugees coming in. Then what to do? First, Shirika goes down the drain, and then Kenya has a new problem with millions of refugees, and overall support for refugees is going down.”

Climate change adds yet another risk. Erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts, environmental degradation and floods are not only driving food insecurity but also contributing to displacement within and across borders. The Star